Tag Archives: TRREB

Condo prices surge in second quarter

GTA condo prices surge in second quarter

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GTA condo prices surge in second quarter

Condominium prices jumped 5.1 per cent to $619,707 in the second quarter of 2020, from $589,622 in Q2 2019, despite sales dropping more than 50 per cent.

Condo prices surge in second quarter

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) recently announced that second quarter 2020 condo sales amounted to 3,459 – down 50.8 per cent from 7,024 sales in Q2 2019.

Listings were also down, 21.6 per cent to 8,717 in Q2 2020, compared to 11,114 new listings in Q2 2019.

“The condominium apartment market experienced a dip in sales and new listings in the second quarter of 2020, as many potential buyers moved to the sidelines as a result of public health measures taken to combat COVID-19 and the resulting economic downturn,” says TRREB President Lisa Patel. “With the overall housing market trending toward recovery in June, condo apartment sales will likely improve in the third quarter.”

“It will be important to watch the relationship between condominium apartment sales and new listings as we move through the second half of 2020,” adds Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. “If economic recovery is sustained, the demand for condo apartments will improve. However, the prospect of stricter regulations on shortterm rentals and softer rental market conditions could fuel increased listings of investor-held units. If we see more balanced market conditions, condo price growth could be more moderate compared to lowrise home types.”


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GTA resale sales

GTA resale home sales, prices surge in July

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GTA resale home sales, prices surge in July

Strong growth in sales and prices in the GTA in July was driven primarily by lowrise home types, notably within the city of Toronto, according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). And in the condominium segment, despite more balanced market conditions, year-over-year price growth remained in the high single digits.

GTA resale sales

Sales recorded a 29.5-per-cent increase over July 2019 – a new record for the month of July, TRREB reports. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 49.5 per cent compared to June 2020.

The overall average selling price was up by 16.9 per cent year-over-year to $943,710. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price was up by 5.5 per cent compared to June 2020.

“Sales activity was extremely strong for the first full month of summer,” says TRREB President Lisa Patel. “Normally we would see sales dip in July relative to June as more households take vacation, especially with children out of school. This year, however, was different with pent-up demand from the COVID-19-related lull in April and May being satisfied in the summer, as economic recovery takes firmer hold, including the Stage 3 re-opening. In addition, fewer people are travelling, which has likely translated into more transactions and listings.”

“Competition between buyers continued to increase in many segments of the GTA ownership housing market in July, which fueled a further acceleration in year-over-year price growth in July compared to June,” adds Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. “On top of this, we also experienced stronger sales growth in the more-expensive detached market segment, which helps explain why annual growth in the overall average selling price was stronger than growth for the MLS HPI Composite benchmark.”


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Caution needed with real estate market stimulus

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Caution needed with real estate market stimulus

TRREB has submitted a detailed policy brief to all levels of government to address economic recovery initiatives surrounding the real estate market. Our key recommendation message is to use caution in implementing demand-side real estate market stimulus.

After a sharp decline in market activity, current real estate indicators are showing a substantial recovery in the GTA real estate market. Before the onset of COVID-19, there was a great deal of pent-up demand in the market. This has arguably increased further over the past three months.

Barring any setbacks, including a sustained second wave of the pandemic or a prolonged recession, we should continue to see stronger market conditions in the second half of 2020 as households look to satisfy their ownership housing needs.

Moving forward, housing affordability in the GTA should continue to be a priority and governments should approach with caution when considering any additional demand-side stimulus to the GTA real estate market. With that said, the best way to address this is by ensuring adequate and appropriate housing supply, which was also set out in our policy brief submission to all levels of government.

TRREB has long called on all levels of government to address the “missing middle.” We continue to do that with our economic recovery initiatives brief and recommend that all governments expedite the creation of this type of housing, including expediting the City of Toronto’s consideration of expanding yellow belt housing opportunities. This refers to the 35 per cent of City land where 70 per cent is currently zoned for detached homes. A City report was recently released in response to a Council direction to report on options to increase missing middle housing options.

TRREB’s economic recovery initiatives brief also outlines recent market statistics, which show a significant rebound in the GTA real estate market since the start of the pandemic. It also outlines results of recent research conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, which shows that homebuying intentions remain stable and that the supply of homes listed for sale could continue to be outpaced by demand.

We have also outlined a number of initiatives that could be considered if economic conditions worsen, including:

  • Municipal and Provincial Land Transfer Tax holidays/deferrals, rate adjustments, and expanded rebates for first-time buyers
  • Property tax deferrals
  • Postponement of consideration of potential vacancy taxes
  • Adjustments to the mortgage stress test
  • Allow 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages, and
  • Adjustments and expansion of the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan

TRREB has been working closely with all levels of government to provide up-to-date data on the state of the real estate market. We will continue to do so to help decision makers respond to the current state of affairs in an informed way.

Lisa Patel is President of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact her at trebpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trreb.ca.

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Homebuyer intentions remain stable despite COVID-19: TRREB

Homebuyer intentions remain stable despite COVID-19: TRREB

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Homebuyer intentions remain stable despite COVID-19: TRREB

Homebuyer intentions were understandably affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, but a survey by Ipsos Public Affairs for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) indicates the pause is purely temporary.

The Consumer Home Buying & Selling Intentions Survey captured home buying and selling intentions, along with consumer opinions on preferred government policy directions related to the housing market.

“While COVID-19 has temporarily impacted home sales and listings in the GTA, the Ipsos survey results that show homebuying intentions have remained quite stable certainly suggest that many people will be looking to satisfy pent-up demand for ownership housing once recovery starts to take hold,” says TRREB President Michael Collins.

“As people gradually return to work, consumer confidence will improve, and a growing number of people will look to take advantage of very low borrowing costs to purchase a home. Home purchases will continue to be aided by the use of technology available to realtors, including live-stream open houses.”

GTA-wide, 27 per cent of survey respondents said they were likely (very likely or somewhat likely) to purchase a home in the next 12 months. While buying intentions were down compared to spring 2019 (31 per cent likely), they remained relatively in line with the five-year trend.

Home purchasing intentions were above the GTA average in Toronto (34 per cent), for younger people aged 18 to 34 (45 per cent) and households with children (37 per cent).

The most common reason for not intending to purchase a home over the next 12 months was that they liked their current home (62 per cent). General affordability issues were also a common response. COVID-19-related issues influenced 16 per cent of respondents who indicated that they were unlikely to purchase a home.

“The supply of listings was an issue before the onset of COVID-19, with market conditions tightening and price growth accelerating throughout the first quarter of 2020,” says Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst.

“The Ipsos survey results suggest that the supply of listings will continue to be an issue as the economy and housing market recovers,” Mercer adds. “Policy makers have acknowledged that there is a lack of a diverse housing supply in the GTA. While the supply issue has understandably taken a back seat to COVID-related issues in the short term, it should once again be top-of-mind once recovery takes hold.”


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TRREB resale March 20

GTA resale sales see drastic drop in March due to COVID-19

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GTA resale sales see drastic drop in March due to COVID-19

March 2020 resale home sales in the GTA were very much a tale of two markets – pre and post COVID-19.

TRREB resale March 20

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports that 8,012 home sales through TRREB’s MLS System in March 2020 – up 12.3 per cent compared to 7,132 sales reported in March 2019.

However, despite a strong increase in sales for March 2020 as a whole, there was a clear break in market activity between pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 (after March 15).

Market impact

“The overall sales result for March was strong relative to last year, but the impact of COVID-19 was certainly evident in the number of sales reported in the second half of March,” says TRREB President Michael Collins. “Uncertainty surrounding the outbreak’s impact on the broader economy and the onset of the necessary social distancing measures resulted in the decline in sales since March 15. Sales figures for April will give us a better sense as to the trajectory of the market while all levels of government take the required action to contain the spread of COVID-19.”

“While COVID-19 has clearly had an impact on the housing market, the late March numbers still suggest that there is activity in the marketplace,” adds TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “TRREB continues to strongly recommend stopping in-person open houses and has provided its members with guidelines for social distancing. TRREB’s professional development staff are working hard to educate its members via webinars on using technology in innovative ways to conduct business virtually.”

Strong demand

“Despite sales and listings trending lower in the second half of March, demand for ownership housing remained strong enough relative to listings to see the average selling price remain above last year’s levels, including during the last few days of the month,” says Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. “As we move through April, we will have a clearer view on how social distancing measures and broader economic conditions will influence sales and ultimately the pace of price growth.”

The average selling price for March 2020 as a whole was $902,680 – up 14.5 per cent compared to March 2019. The average selling price for sales between March 15 and 31 was $862,563 – down from the first half of March, but still up 10.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Revised forecast

TRREB is to release a forecast update in mid-April, after seeing 2020 started with a near-record pace for home sales in the first quarter and double-digit annual rates of price growth.

RELATED READING

How buyers can prepare for the busy buying season – post-COVID-19

What the coronavirus means for Canadian real estate

GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

 

 

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Local Focus - Toronto

Toronto – in demand and on the rise

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Toronto – in demand and on the rise

Largely considered the pinnacle of the condo boom we’re seeing these days, Toronto still does boast some good lowrise home options. Supply and pricing of those homes, however, is another matter.

That’s what happens when you combine a strong economy and rising population with limited new and resale home supply.

Indeed, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is forecasting at least 10-per-cent price growth in the GTA this year to $900,000, up from $819,319 in 2019. And on the new home side, 2020 began on a strong note, with 2,106 total new home sales in January, up 65 per cent from January 2019 and 14 per cent above the 10-year average, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.09 million.

Booming economy

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade,” says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development.

“Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen.”

Long considered one of the most multicultural cities in the world, Toronto boasts a collection of distinct communities, including East York, North York, Scarborough and Etobicoke.

Some of these areas, in fact, now represent areas of growth for new lowrise housing, given that larger master-planned communities of single-detached homes are fewer and farther between. Much of the focus now is on the socalled missing middle, those smaller developments such as townhomes that represent a real opportunity for new ground-oriented homes in the city.

Culture and entertainment

Find a way to buy and live in Toronto, however, and you likely will love it.

Toronto offers a vast array of culture and entertainment options, from the National Ballet of Canada, Toronto Symphony Orchestra, to the Art Gallery of Ontario, Royal Ontario Museum and more.

For the sporting sort, Toronto has a handful of pro sports teams – the Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, Toronto Blue Jays, Toronto FC and Toronto Argonauts – and is home to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) is an annual event celebrating the film industry and attracts many movie stars and a-list players. And the Toronto Caribbean Carnival, formerly known as Caribana, attracts more than one million people every summer.

Other points of interest include the Toronto Zoo, the Ontario Science Centre, Harbourfront, Fort York, the Distillery District, Ripley’s Aquarium, the CN Tower and the Canadian National Exhibition.

And of course, as a large metropolitan city, great shopping areas include the St. Lawrence Market, Kensington Market, the Toronto Eaton Centre, Sherway Gardens and Yorkdale Mall.

Though a subject of some debate due to the challenges with keeping up with all the growth, transit and highway infrastructure is undergoing major expansion all over the city. The TTC moves almost two million people throughout the city every day on subway, buses, streetcars and LRT lines, while GO Transit links Toronto with the surrounding regions of the GTA. Highways include the 400 series (401, 403, 404, 407 and 427), the Don Valley Parkway and the Queen Elizabeth Highway.

Location, location, location

This provincial capital of Ontario and the most populated city in Canada is located on the shores of Lake Ontario; Population 2,954,024

Key landmarks

  • CN Tower
  • High Park
  • Ontario Science Centre
  • Ripley’s Aquarium
  • Toronto Eaton Centre

Select housing developments

East Station by Mattamy Homes

Fairfield Towns by Plaza

Lake & Town by Menkes

Origins of Don Mills by Mattamy Homes

Terraces at Eglinton by Nascent Developments

The Belmont Residences by Caliber Homes

The New Lawrence Heights by Context Dev. Inc.

The New Lawrence Heights by Metropia

Twelve on the Ravine by Geranium


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The GTA housing market in January 2020

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The GTA housing market in January 2020

Picking up where 2019 left off, 2020 began with strong sales growth, dwindling housing supply and high demand for ownership and rental housing. January 2020 continued the monthly trend of increased sales coupled with a dip in listings supply. More than 4,580 sales were reported through Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s MLS system in January 2020, up by 15 per cent compared to January 2019. However, the number of new listings entered into TRREB’s MLS system in January was down 17.3 per cent when compared to the same time last year.

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Increased sales up against a constrained supply of listings resulted in increased competition between buyers and stronger price growth in the first month of 2020. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 12.3 per cent to $839,363, compared to $747,175 in January 2019.

When it comes to an outlook for 2020, without seeing a significant increase in supply, it is likely that new listings will not keep up with sales growth, and over the next year an acceleration in price growth can be expected.

TRREB calls on all levels of government to create concrete housing plans for the next decade

Since entering a new year and decade, tighter market conditions with increased competition between buyers and pent-up demand for both ownership and rental housing has remained an ongoing phenomenon.

Persistent demand for housing in the GTA market can be attributed to a strong regional economy, including low unemployment, steady population growth and low borrowing costs. However, part of the answer to satisfying the issue of ownership housing is the construction of more mid-density housing to provide GTA buyers with more affordable housing options.

TRREB has demonstrated an ongoing commitment in calling on all levels of government to create concrete housing plans. In fact, since 2015, our organization has released an annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report to shed light on the issues discussed above, using clear and hard evidence, as well as to offer solutions to other major regional challenges in the GTA, including infrastructure requirements and transportation and traffic issues.

The 2020 edition of the report, subtitled “The Time is Now” is all about planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe.

With the release of this report each year, TRREB continues to make great strides in working with policymakers and industry stakeholders to present fresh ideas on what is critically needed to accommodate the increasing population across the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

To download the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Market Year in Review & Outlook Report, visit TRREB.ca. We hope you enjoy reading the report and join in the dialogue.

Michael Collins is president of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact him at trebpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trebhome.com.

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The GTA housing market in January 2020

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The GTA housing market in January 2020

Picking up where 2019 left off, 2020 began with strong sales growth, dwindling housing supply and high demand for ownership and rental housing.

January 2020 continued the monthly trend of increased sales coupled with a dip in listings supply. More than 4,580 sales were reported through Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s MLS system in January 2020, up by 15 per cent compared to January 2019. However, the number of new listings entered into TRREB’s MLS system in January was down 17.3 per cent when compared to the same time last year.

Increased sales up against a constrained supply of listings resulted in increased competition between buyers and stronger price growth in the first month of 2020. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 12.3 per cent to $839,363, compared to $747,175 in January 2019.

When it comes to an outlook for 2020, without seeing a significant increase in supply, it is likely that new listings will not keep up with sales growth, and over the next year an acceleration in price growth can be expected.

TRREB calls on all levels of government to create concrete housing plans for the next decade

Since entering a new year and decade, tighter market conditions with increased competition between buyers and pent-up demand for both ownership and rental housing has remained an ongoing phenomenon.

Persistent demand for housing in the GTA market can be attributed to a strong regional economy, including low unemployment, steady population growth and low borrowing costs. However, part of the answer to satisfying the issue of ownership housing is the construction of more mid-density housing to provide GTA buyers with more affordable housing options.

TRREB has demonstrated an ongoing commitment in calling on all levels of government to create concrete housing plans. In fact, since 2015, our organization has released an annual Market Year in Review & Outlook Report to shed light on the issues discussed above, using clear and hard evidence, as well as to offer solutions to other major regional challenges in the GTA, including infrastructure requirements and transportation and traffic issues.

The 2020 edition of the report, subtitled “The Time is Now” is all about planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe.

With the release of this report each year, TRREB continues to make great strides in working with policymakers and industry stakeholders to present fresh ideas on what is critically needed to accommodate the increasing population across the Greater Golden Horseshoe.

To download the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board Market Year in Review & Outlook Report, visit TRREB.ca. We hope you enjoy reading the report and join in the dialogue.

Michael Collins is president of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact him at trebpres@trebnet.com.

For updates on the real estate market, visit trebhome.com.

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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

A strong economy and rising population will combine to cause a surge in home price growth and sales in 2020, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Year in Review and Outlook Report. This may be good news for those who already own a home, but it represents additional challenges for prospective homebuyers.

“Robust regional economic conditions, strong population growth and low borrowing costs will support increased home sales in 2020,” says TRREB President Michael Collins. “Market conditions will become tighter, as transactions will continue to outpace the growth in available listings. The resulting increase in competition between buyers will likely result in an acceleration in price growth across all major market segments.”

TRREB is forecasting at least 10-per-cent price growth this year to $900,000, up from $819,319 in 2019, as well as a 10.5-per-cent jump in sales to 97,000, from 87,825 in 2019.

This forecast rate of growth presupposes that price growth will continue to be driven by the less expensive mid-density, lowrise home types and condominium apartments. If the pace of detached home price growth begins to catch up to that of other major home types, the average selling price for all home types combined could push well past the $900,000 mark over the next year.

“The fact that tens of thousands of new households form each year in the GTA is testament to our region’s competitiveness on the global stage,” says John DiMichele, TRREB CEO. “We attract some of the best talent available into and across a diversity of economic sectors. However, in order to remain competitive, policy makers need to continue their focus on the constrained GTA housing supply and to ensure we have an integrated and efficient transit and transportation network that will effectively allow the movement of people and goods.”

“It’s a situation that’s been unfolding over the last decade,” Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels, told HOMES Publishing. “A lot of these people are looking to purchase a home to find a place to live, yet we’ve seen a flatline in terms of both home completions, and that feeds into a flatline, even a downward trend in some cases in terms of listings.”

Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels

Persistent shortage

While the GTA did see an improvement in condominium apartment rental supply in 2019, recent consumer polling, coupled with the potential for smaller returns on investment from rental income, suggests there are still forces working against more balanced market conditions in the GTA rental market, TRREB says. Policymakers at all levels of government need to be mindful of rental supply requirements as the GTA population continues to grow on the back of a strong regional economy and strong immigration. The organization expects above-inflation annual growth rates in average one- and two-bedroom condominium rents to be sustained in 2020.

“After more than three years of slower market activity brought on largely by changes in housing-related policies at the provincial and federal levels, home sales will move closer to demographic potential in 2020,” says Mercer. “The key issue, however, will be the persistent shortage of listings. Without relief on the housing supply front, the pace of price growth will continue to ramp up. Policy makers need to understand that demand side initiatives on their own will only have a temporary impact on the market.”

TRREB’s report this year focuses on planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe, with the subtitle “The Time is Now.” Contributions from several organizations all point to the same conclusion: Immediate government support to address housing supply and infrastructure – otherwise, home prices will continue to rise to prohibitive levels.

“Everyone realizes, if you’re thinking about our region both in terms of housing people and also remaining competitive, because if you’re attracting business, people will want a ready supply of housing, and that’s something that’s been quite constrained,” says Mercer. “So, moving forward, we need all levels of government to focus on bringing on more supply, but also great diversity of supply.”

Hon. Steve Clark

Affordability challenges

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade,” says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development. “Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen.”

The Centre for Urban Research & Land Development conducted a study that examined the economy and housing market up to 2031, which shows continuing deterioration of affordability.

“We expect a lot of employment growth, more higher paying jobs in the Toronto region… it’s going to be a good time over the next 10 years for employment and income growth. But, unfortunately, incomes on average will not rise as fast as housing prices or rents, so affordability will continue to be a very serious problem, in fact, get worse.”

Adds Paul Smetanin, president and CEO, Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis: “To accommodate the 480,000 new daily commuters that are expected to join the system between now and 2041, transportation infrastructure capacity will have to increase significantly, and especially for public transit. To get there without making congestion worse, it’s going to be very important to evaluate each new investment in transportation infrastructure on the basis of its productivity to make sure pressure is relieved in the right places.”

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