Tag Archives: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

GTA resale sales

GTA resale home sales, prices surge in July

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GTA resale home sales, prices surge in July

Strong growth in sales and prices in the GTA in July was driven primarily by lowrise home types, notably within the city of Toronto, according to the latest data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). And in the condominium segment, despite more balanced market conditions, year-over-year price growth remained in the high single digits.

GTA resale sales

Sales recorded a 29.5-per-cent increase over July 2019 – a new record for the month of July, TRREB reports. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 49.5 per cent compared to June 2020.

The overall average selling price was up by 16.9 per cent year-over-year to $943,710. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price was up by 5.5 per cent compared to June 2020.

“Sales activity was extremely strong for the first full month of summer,” says TRREB President Lisa Patel. “Normally we would see sales dip in July relative to June as more households take vacation, especially with children out of school. This year, however, was different with pent-up demand from the COVID-19-related lull in April and May being satisfied in the summer, as economic recovery takes firmer hold, including the Stage 3 re-opening. In addition, fewer people are travelling, which has likely translated into more transactions and listings.”

“Competition between buyers continued to increase in many segments of the GTA ownership housing market in July, which fueled a further acceleration in year-over-year price growth in July compared to June,” adds Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. “On top of this, we also experienced stronger sales growth in the more-expensive detached market segment, which helps explain why annual growth in the overall average selling price was stronger than growth for the MLS HPI Composite benchmark.”


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Caution needed with real estate market stimulus

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Caution needed with real estate market stimulus

TRREB has submitted a detailed policy brief to all levels of government to address economic recovery initiatives surrounding the real estate market. Our key recommendation message is to use caution in implementing demand-side real estate market stimulus.

After a sharp decline in market activity, current real estate indicators are showing a substantial recovery in the GTA real estate market. Before the onset of COVID-19, there was a great deal of pent-up demand in the market. This has arguably increased further over the past three months.

Barring any setbacks, including a sustained second wave of the pandemic or a prolonged recession, we should continue to see stronger market conditions in the second half of 2020 as households look to satisfy their ownership housing needs.

Moving forward, housing affordability in the GTA should continue to be a priority and governments should approach with caution when considering any additional demand-side stimulus to the GTA real estate market. With that said, the best way to address this is by ensuring adequate and appropriate housing supply, which was also set out in our policy brief submission to all levels of government.

TRREB has long called on all levels of government to address the “missing middle.” We continue to do that with our economic recovery initiatives brief and recommend that all governments expedite the creation of this type of housing, including expediting the City of Toronto’s consideration of expanding yellow belt housing opportunities. This refers to the 35 per cent of City land where 70 per cent is currently zoned for detached homes. A City report was recently released in response to a Council direction to report on options to increase missing middle housing options.

TRREB’s economic recovery initiatives brief also outlines recent market statistics, which show a significant rebound in the GTA real estate market since the start of the pandemic. It also outlines results of recent research conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, which shows that homebuying intentions remain stable and that the supply of homes listed for sale could continue to be outpaced by demand.

We have also outlined a number of initiatives that could be considered if economic conditions worsen, including:

  • Municipal and Provincial Land Transfer Tax holidays/deferrals, rate adjustments, and expanded rebates for first-time buyers
  • Property tax deferrals
  • Postponement of consideration of potential vacancy taxes
  • Adjustments to the mortgage stress test
  • Allow 30-year amortizations for insured mortgages, and
  • Adjustments and expansion of the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan

TRREB has been working closely with all levels of government to provide up-to-date data on the state of the real estate market. We will continue to do so to help decision makers respond to the current state of affairs in an informed way.

Lisa Patel is President of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact her at trebpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trreb.ca.

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Increased market activity in Stage Two of reopening the economy

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Increased market activity in Stage Two of reopening the economy

Although we saw a sharp decline in market activity during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve now entered stage two of reopening of the economy and we can see a further increase in market activity.

For June 2020, 8,701 sales were reported through TRREB’s MLS System. This result represented a substantial increase over the May 2020 sales result, both on an actual (89 per cent) and seasonally adjusted basis (84 per cent), and down by only 1.4 per cent compared to June 2019.

New listings were up slightly on a year-over-year basis by 2.1 per cent. However, active listings at the end of June 2020 were down by 28.8 per cent compared to June 2019. Growth in new listings will need to outstrip growth in sales for a number of months before active listings approach last year’s levels.

The average selling price for all home types increased by 11.9 per cent to $930,869, compared to June 2019. The actual and seasonally-adjusted average selling prices were also up substantially compared to May 2020, by 7.8 and 9.8 per cent, respectively.

Pent-up demand pre- and post-COVID

Following the broader movement to reopen the economy in June, we experienced a very positive result in terms of home sales and selling prices. Before the onset of COVID-19, there was a great deal of pent-up demand in the market. This pent-up demand arguably increased further over the past three months. We are still in the early days of recovery, but barring any setbacks, we should continue to see stronger market conditions in the second half of 2020, as households look to satisfy their ownership housing needs.

It will be important to monitor housing market conditions as economic recovery continues in the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Policymakers should proceed cautiously with any demand-side stimulus. The persistent lack of listing inventory in the GTA understandably took a back seat to COVID-19 related issues in the short term, but supply should once again be top-of-mind once the recovery takes hold, to ensure long-term affordability in the GTA.

To further gauge the impact of COVID-19 on the GTA housing market and to gain insight on what the future holds for demand and supply, TRREB undertook a second poll of consumer intentions through Ipsos between May 25 and 31, 2020. The key findings from this poll was very much in line with the results from the April 2020 poll. Buying intentions remained strong across both surveys, with respondents indicating they were likely to purchase a home in the next 12 months. In terms of listing intentions, although up from the April Ipsos poll (21 per cent in May versus 17 per cent in April), the result remained well below the 32 per cent listings intentions mark recorded in the spring of 2019.

Again, we can recognize a gap between buying and listing intentions, which demonstrates a broader trend exhibited in the GTA over the past few years. Furthermore, this gap underpins the requirement of policymakers to take action on the housing supply front, both in terms of aggregate supply and increasing the diversity of housing types available to homebuyers.

Lisa Patel is President of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact her at trebpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trreb.ca.

 

Featured Image by Royal LePage

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Increased market activity in stage two of reopening the economy

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Increased market activity in stage two of reopening the economy

Featured Image by: Royal LePage

Although we saw a sharp decline in market activity during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we’ve now entered stage two of reopening of the economy and we can see a further increase in market activity.

For June 2020, 8,701 sales were reported through TRREB’s MLS System. This result represented a substantial increase over the May 2020 sales result, both on an actual (89 per cent) and seasonally adjusted basis (84 per cent), and down by only 1.4 per cent compared to June 2019.

New listings were up slightly on a year-over- year basis by 2.1 per cent. However, active listings at the end of June 2020 were down by 28.8 per cent compared to June 2019. Growth in new listings will need to outstrip growth in sales for a number of months before active listings approach last year’s levels.

The average selling price for all home types increased by 11.9 per cent to $930,869, compared to June 2019. The actual and seasonally-adjusted average selling prices were also up substantially compared to May 2020, by 7.8 and 9.8 per cent, respectively.

Pent-up demand pre- and post-COVID

Following the broader movement to reopen the economy in June, we experienced a very positive result in terms of home sales and selling prices. Before the onset of COVID-19, there was a great deal of pent-up demand in the market. This pent-up demand arguably increased further over the past three months. We are still in the early days of recovery, but barring any setbacks, we should continue to see stronger market conditions in the second half of 2020, as households look to satisfy their ownership housing needs.

It will be important to closely monitor housing market conditions as economic recovery continues in the second half of 2020 and into 2021. Policymakers should proceed cautiously with any demand-side stimulus. The persistent lack of listing inventory in the GTA understandably took a back seat to COVID-19 related issues in the short term, but supply should once again be top-of-mind once the recovery takes hold, in order to ensure longterm affordability in the GTA.

In order to further gauge the impact of COVID-19 on the GTA housing market and to gain insight on what the future holds for housing demand and supply, TRREB undertook a second poll of consumer intentions through Ipsos between May 25 and 31, 2020. The key findings from this poll was very much in line with the results from the April 2020 poll. Buying intentions remained strong across both surveys, with respondents indicating they were likely to purchase a home in the next 12 months. In terms of listing intentions, although up from the April Ipsos poll (21 per cent in May versus 17 per cent in April), the result remained well below the 32 per cent listings intentions mark recorded in the spring of 2019.

Again, we can recognize a gap between buying intentions and listing intentions, which demonstrates a broader trend exhibited in the GTA over the past few years. Furthermore, this gap underpins the requirement of policymakers to take action on the housing supply front, both in terms of aggregate supply and increasing the diversity of housing types available to home buyers.

Lisa Patel is President of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, a professional association that represents 54,500 professional realtor members in the Greater Toronto Area. You can contact her at trebpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trreb.ca.

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Local Focus - Toronto

Toronto – in demand and on the rise

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Toronto – in demand and on the rise

Largely considered the pinnacle of the condo boom we’re seeing these days, Toronto still does boast some good lowrise home options. Supply and pricing of those homes, however, is another matter.

That’s what happens when you combine a strong economy and rising population with limited new and resale home supply.

Indeed, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is forecasting at least 10-per-cent price growth in the GTA this year to $900,000, up from $819,319 in 2019. And on the new home side, 2020 began on a strong note, with 2,106 total new home sales in January, up 65 per cent from January 2019 and 14 per cent above the 10-year average, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD). The benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.09 million.

Booming economy

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade,” says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development.

“Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen.”

Long considered one of the most multicultural cities in the world, Toronto boasts a collection of distinct communities, including East York, North York, Scarborough and Etobicoke.

Some of these areas, in fact, now represent areas of growth for new lowrise housing, given that larger master-planned communities of single-detached homes are fewer and farther between. Much of the focus now is on the socalled missing middle, those smaller developments such as townhomes that represent a real opportunity for new ground-oriented homes in the city.

Culture and entertainment

Find a way to buy and live in Toronto, however, and you likely will love it.

Toronto offers a vast array of culture and entertainment options, from the National Ballet of Canada, Toronto Symphony Orchestra, to the Art Gallery of Ontario, Royal Ontario Museum and more.

For the sporting sort, Toronto has a handful of pro sports teams – the Toronto Maple Leafs, Toronto Raptors, Toronto Blue Jays, Toronto FC and Toronto Argonauts – and is home to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

The Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) is an annual event celebrating the film industry and attracts many movie stars and a-list players. And the Toronto Caribbean Carnival, formerly known as Caribana, attracts more than one million people every summer.

Other points of interest include the Toronto Zoo, the Ontario Science Centre, Harbourfront, Fort York, the Distillery District, Ripley’s Aquarium, the CN Tower and the Canadian National Exhibition.

And of course, as a large metropolitan city, great shopping areas include the St. Lawrence Market, Kensington Market, the Toronto Eaton Centre, Sherway Gardens and Yorkdale Mall.

Though a subject of some debate due to the challenges with keeping up with all the growth, transit and highway infrastructure is undergoing major expansion all over the city. The TTC moves almost two million people throughout the city every day on subway, buses, streetcars and LRT lines, while GO Transit links Toronto with the surrounding regions of the GTA. Highways include the 400 series (401, 403, 404, 407 and 427), the Don Valley Parkway and the Queen Elizabeth Highway.

Location, location, location

This provincial capital of Ontario and the most populated city in Canada is located on the shores of Lake Ontario; Population 2,954,024

Key landmarks

  • CN Tower
  • High Park
  • Ontario Science Centre
  • Ripley’s Aquarium
  • Toronto Eaton Centre

Select housing developments

East Station by Mattamy Homes

Fairfield Towns by Plaza

Lake & Town by Menkes

Origins of Don Mills by Mattamy Homes

Terraces at Eglinton by Nascent Developments

The Belmont Residences by Caliber Homes

The New Lawrence Heights by Context Dev. Inc.

The New Lawrence Heights by Metropia

Twelve on the Ravine by Geranium


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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

A strong economy and rising population will combine to cause a surge in home price growth and sales in 2020, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Year in Review and Outlook Report. This may be good news for those who already own a home, but it represents additional challenges for prospective homebuyers.

“Robust regional economic conditions, strong population growth and low borrowing costs will support increased home sales in 2020,” says TRREB President Michael Collins. “Market conditions will become tighter, as transactions will continue to outpace the growth in available listings. The resulting increase in competition between buyers will likely result in an acceleration in price growth across all major market segments.”

TRREB is forecasting at least 10-per-cent price growth this year to $900,000, up from $819,319 in 2019, as well as a 10.5-per-cent jump in sales to 97,000, from 87,825 in 2019.

This forecast rate of growth presupposes that price growth will continue to be driven by the less expensive mid-density, lowrise home types and condominium apartments. If the pace of detached home price growth begins to catch up to that of other major home types, the average selling price for all home types combined could push well past the $900,000 mark over the next year.

“The fact that tens of thousands of new households form each year in the GTA is testament to our region’s competitiveness on the global stage,” says John DiMichele, TRREB CEO. “We attract some of the best talent available into and across a diversity of economic sectors. However, in order to remain competitive, policy makers need to continue their focus on the constrained GTA housing supply and to ensure we have an integrated and efficient transit and transportation network that will effectively allow the movement of people and goods.”

“It’s a situation that’s been unfolding over the last decade,” Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels, told HOMES Publishing. “A lot of these people are looking to purchase a home to find a place to live, yet we’ve seen a flatline in terms of both home completions, and that feeds into a flatline, even a downward trend in some cases in terms of listings.”

Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels

Persistent shortage

While the GTA did see an improvement in condominium apartment rental supply in 2019, recent consumer polling, coupled with the potential for smaller returns on investment from rental income, suggests there are still forces working against more balanced market conditions in the GTA rental market, TRREB says. Policymakers at all levels of government need to be mindful of rental supply requirements as the GTA population continues to grow on the back of a strong regional economy and strong immigration. The organization expects above-inflation annual growth rates in average one- and two-bedroom condominium rents to be sustained in 2020.

“After more than three years of slower market activity brought on largely by changes in housing-related policies at the provincial and federal levels, home sales will move closer to demographic potential in 2020,” says Mercer. “The key issue, however, will be the persistent shortage of listings. Without relief on the housing supply front, the pace of price growth will continue to ramp up. Policy makers need to understand that demand side initiatives on their own will only have a temporary impact on the market.”

TRREB’s report this year focuses on planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe, with the subtitle “The Time is Now.” Contributions from several organizations all point to the same conclusion: Immediate government support to address housing supply and infrastructure – otherwise, home prices will continue to rise to prohibitive levels.

“Everyone realizes, if you’re thinking about our region both in terms of housing people and also remaining competitive, because if you’re attracting business, people will want a ready supply of housing, and that’s something that’s been quite constrained,” says Mercer. “So, moving forward, we need all levels of government to focus on bringing on more supply, but also great diversity of supply.”

Hon. Steve Clark

Affordability challenges

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade,” says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development. “Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen.”

The Centre for Urban Research & Land Development conducted a study that examined the economy and housing market up to 2031, which shows continuing deterioration of affordability.

“We expect a lot of employment growth, more higher paying jobs in the Toronto region… it’s going to be a good time over the next 10 years for employment and income growth. But, unfortunately, incomes on average will not rise as fast as housing prices or rents, so affordability will continue to be a very serious problem, in fact, get worse.”

Adds Paul Smetanin, president and CEO, Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis: “To accommodate the 480,000 new daily commuters that are expected to join the system between now and 2041, transportation infrastructure capacity will have to increase significantly, and especially for public transit. To get there without making congestion worse, it’s going to be very important to evaluate each new investment in transportation infrastructure on the basis of its productivity to make sure pressure is relieved in the right places.”

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