Tag Archives: real estate

TRREB resale March 20

GTA resale sales see drastic drop in March due to COVID-19

Latest News


GTA resale sales see drastic drop in March due to COVID-19

March 2020 resale home sales in the GTA were very much a tale of two markets – pre and post COVID-19.

TRREB resale March 20

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reports that 8,012 home sales through TRREB’s MLS System in March 2020 – up 12.3 per cent compared to 7,132 sales reported in March 2019.

However, despite a strong increase in sales for March 2020 as a whole, there was a clear break in market activity between pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 (after March 15).

Market impact

“The overall sales result for March was strong relative to last year, but the impact of COVID-19 was certainly evident in the number of sales reported in the second half of March,” says TRREB President Michael Collins. “Uncertainty surrounding the outbreak’s impact on the broader economy and the onset of the necessary social distancing measures resulted in the decline in sales since March 15. Sales figures for April will give us a better sense as to the trajectory of the market while all levels of government take the required action to contain the spread of COVID-19.”

“While COVID-19 has clearly had an impact on the housing market, the late March numbers still suggest that there is activity in the marketplace,” adds TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “TRREB continues to strongly recommend stopping in-person open houses and has provided its members with guidelines for social distancing. TRREB’s professional development staff are working hard to educate its members via webinars on using technology in innovative ways to conduct business virtually.”

Strong demand

“Despite sales and listings trending lower in the second half of March, demand for ownership housing remained strong enough relative to listings to see the average selling price remain above last year’s levels, including during the last few days of the month,” says Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst. “As we move through April, we will have a clearer view on how social distancing measures and broader economic conditions will influence sales and ultimately the pace of price growth.”

The average selling price for March 2020 as a whole was $902,680 – up 14.5 per cent compared to March 2019. The average selling price for sales between March 15 and 31 was $862,563 – down from the first half of March, but still up 10.5 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Revised forecast

TRREB is to release a forecast update in mid-April, after seeing 2020 started with a near-record pace for home sales in the first quarter and double-digit annual rates of price growth.

RELATED READING

How buyers can prepare for the busy buying season – post-COVID-19

What the coronavirus means for Canadian real estate

GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

 

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


Humber Bay, Etobicoke

Why Canadians should think long term in real estate – especially now

Latest News


Why Canadians should think long term in real estate – especially now

Humber Bay, Etobicoke

Unprecedented doesn’t even begin to describe it. A few weeks ago, we awaited an exceptionally active spring real estate market in the GTA, buoyed by the recent easing of mortgage regulations and interest rates.

Now, however, instead of seeing a spike in buying activity, we’re hunkering down, battening down the hatches and riding out the COVID-19 crisis, all in an attempt to flatten the curve.

Historic, surreal and unbelievable might be more suitable adjectives to describe these times.

And under such circumstances, with normal life routine displaced by the daunting and unknown, people naturally tend to worry.

In real estate, if location, location, location is the No. 1 rule of thumb, thinking long term is right there along with it, as 1A.

We’ve been through similar challenging times: The 1989 recession, Y2K, 9/11, the Great Recession of 2008-09 and SARS. Now we face COVID-19.

At times of economic uncertainty and extreme stress in the marketplace, people always revert to their number one emotional and financial investment – their home. People trust real estate. Buying that first condo, a new home for their growing family, downsizing once the kids move out or renovating the place you already love.

And, so it will be again.

Long-term lift

But don’t take our word for it. Consider, for example this report from the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), a national group of investors which bases everything it does on independent research.

According to the REIN Special Report: The Coronavirus’ Impact on Canadian Real Estate, Canadian real estate will see an immediate cool-down – but a long-term lift. We may see a temporary decrease in GDP growth, but key drivers of real estate such as population growth and increased foreign capital, demand and property values will eventually rise.

“It’s still premature to predict how the coronavirus outbreak will be resolved, but data suggests that panic will only worsen the country’s economic situation,” says Jennifer Hunt, REIN’s vice-president of research. “There is reason to be alert, but there’s absolutely no reason to further raise alarm and cause more public fear. In fact, as a Canadian real estate investor, this may represent a buying opportunity for investors, with a likely future positive lift in rental and housing markets.”

Open for business

It might be a stretch to say it’s “business as usual,” but life does have to go on, as soon and as safely as possible. New home builders and developers are open for business, are accepting presentation centre visits to by appointment only, and as much as possible are moving communications to digital.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada recently lowered its influential overnight rate target twice in less than two weeks – from 1.75 to 1.25 per cent on March 4, then again to 0.75 per cent on March 16. Canada’s Big Five banks are following suit by lowering mortgage rates, and they, too, are increasingly going digital to facilitate business.

Buyer-friendly

All of this means the opportunities to buy are still there (though with a modified process), with less short-term competition and a more buyer-friendly mortgage and borrowing landscape.

Indeed, as challenging as these times may be, it’s even more important to focus on the long term. And on that front, new-home ownership in the GTA is still a solid investment.

RELATED READING

GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

Outlook 2020 – 5 things you need to know about real estate this year

Get ready for a hot market in the GTA this spring

 

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


REFEB_Royal_LePage_fi

Get ready for a hot market in the GTA this spring

Latest News


Get ready for a hot market in the GTA this spring

From the economy to interest rates, to government involvement and the mortgage stress test, to new home supply and affordability, there’s a lot to pay attention to this year as you go through the new-home buying experience. But, for all the challenges that these topics represent, know this: Ontario, and especially the GTA, is once again positioned for a hot market this spring.

According to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $648,544 in the fourth quarter of 2019. And for this year, the realty firm is forecasting 3.2-per-cent price growth to $669,800. For the GTA, the news is even better, and homeowners and homebuyers can expect a hot market this spring.

Greater Toronto Area

Low supply, population growth and increased consumer confidence continue to fuel home prices in the GTA. In the fourth quarter last year, the aggregate price of a home in the region increased 4.8 per cent year-over-year, rising to $843,609. During the same period, the median price of a standard two-storey home rose 4.4 per cent to $982,944, bungalows 2.4 per cent to $806,977, and condominiums increased 7.8 per cent to $565,919.

“The Greater Toronto Area is at a pivot point where we are seeing signs that prices could begin to rapidly increase,” says Kevin Somers, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “The region has a very low supply of listings while we are seeing more potential buyers trying to enter the market.”

Home price growth varied significantly across the region in 2019. While some areas showed stabilizing prices and healthy price growth, many regions, including the city centre, showed the potential for rapidly accelerating appreciation rates driven by high demand and low inventory. Significant price gains were seen in Pickering and Mississauga, where the aggregate price increased 9.7 per cent and 7.9 per cent year-over-year, respectively. The aggregate price of a home in the City of Toronto increased 6.6 per cent year-over-year.

Ajax and Oshawa were the only two areas to show a year-over-year decline in aggregate price. The aggregate price of a home in Ajax and Oshawa decreased 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent to $661,049 and $524,423, respectively.

Changes to the stress test?

In the first half of 2019, some buyers remained on the sidelines waiting to gauge the potential impact of the federal mortgage stress test, but began to return to the market in the third quarter.

“The federal government has signaled that changes could come to the mortgage stress test mechanism in 2020,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “The stress test pushed people out of real estate markets across Canada temporarily. For the most part, buyers have adjusted, yet it still represents a significant hurdle as families pursue the dream of owning their own home.”

Soper adds that the impact of the regulations-driven drop in demand is felt very differently in different parts of the country.

“We believe policy makers have the necessary experience to modify the tool to meet the reality of today’s Canada – that we have very different and varied economies, and by extension housing policy needs, from region to region.”

RELATED READING

Outlook 2020 – 5 things you need to know about real estate this year

Forecast 2019 – where are Canada’s hottest housing markets?

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


cl_jan20_2020_prediction_fi

Outlook 2020 – 5 things you need to know about real estate this year

Latest News


Outlook 2020 – 5 things you need to know about real estate this year

cl_jan20_2020_prediction_fi

Outlook 2020 – it’s a new year and a new decade, and with that come new challenges and opportunities. When it pertains to the housing industry and homebuying, we’ve boiled it down to a handful of items to keep your eye on. Here are five things you really need to understand about real estate – specifically the GTA market.

1 REAL ESTATE IS LOCAL

This is a good place to start, because it’s a simple but important fact that escapes many consumers: Real estate is local. There is no such thing as a Canadian housing market, just as there’s no Canadian traffic or Canadian weather.

Sure, organizations such as the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) are mandated to analyze what goes on across the country. But what’s most important to you is what’s happening in your market. When you buy a home, you don’t buy a national market. You buy one property, on one street, in one neighbourhood, in one city and region.

If you live in Ontario, why do you care that Alberta’s ongoing oil industry struggles are affecting sales and prices in markets in that province? Or that Vancouver’s affordability challenges are even more serious than those in Toronto?

Forget the national headlines. Examine what’s happening in your market. The same applies to the economy.

Why does this matter? Read on.

2 THE ECONOMY

Globally, geopolitical uncertainty and softening economic growth will mean Canada faces some challenges with export and investment, leaving the heavy lifting to the consumer, according to Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist at RBC.

RBC forecasts the economy to grow about 1.6 per cent in 2020. The unemployment rate remains at fourdecade lows, though may rise to 5.9 per cent in 2020 from 5.7 per cent in 2019. Companies are having difficulty finding skilled workers, leading to stronger wage growth.

Ontario’s real GDP growth is forecast to slow to 1.6 per cent for 2019 and 1.5 per cent in 2020, according to the Conference Board of Canada. Job creation remains strong, with the province adding more than 200,000 new jobs over the first 10 months of 2019, much of them in full-time work.

Ontarians are among the most positive about the economic outlook, according to a recent public opinion survey from the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute, with 22 per cent of respondents indicating they believe the economy will improve. Only residents in Quebec, at 30 per cent, and BC at 23 per cent, are more optimistic. In Alberta, by contrast, 79 per cent of residents expect their economy to deteriorate over the next year.

Keeping in mind what we wrote about real estate – and even the economy – being local, Ontario is looking strong on both counts for 2020.

Craig Wright, RBC
Craig Wright, RBC

“We continue to see strong employment gains, Ontario is leading Canada in terms of employment growth on a year-over-year basis, and strong population growth,” Wright told Homes Publishing. “So, strong fundamentals supporting it, in a low rate environment.”

The GTA’s robust population growth will continue to drive demand for both ownership and rental housing, Wright says.

Housing markets in Southern Ontario, in fact, led in home price growth last year, and are expected to continue to do so in 2020, according to a new report from ReMax.

ALSO READ: OUR TOP 7 REAL ESTATE STORIES OF 2019 

Oshawa housing to move into buyers’ market thanks to GM closure

Forecast 2019 – where are Canada’s hottest housing markets?

In Conversation With Deena Pantalone of National Homes

In Conversation With Niall Collins, President of Great Gulf Residential

7 factors that will affect GTA housing in 2019 – and 5 reasons to consider buying NOW

Behind the numbers, Breaking down the market in March 2019

HPG golf tournament cracks $300K in funds for Raising The Roof

“Southern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions still seeing double-digit gains,” says Christopher Alexander, executive vice-president and regional director, ReMax of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Thanks to the region’s resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.”

Toronto is set to experience a strong housing market this year, thanks to lower unemployment rates, economic growth and improved overall affordability in the GTA. ReMax is forecasting average sale price growth of six per cent, two points higher than the increase from 2018 ($835,422) and 2019 ($880,841).

The Niagara region is also showing strong growth, with average residential sale price increasing almost 13 per cent, from $378,517 in 2018 to $427,487 in 2019. Value-conscious consumers from the GTA are buying in droves, with many choosing to live in the region and commute to Toronto.

3 INTEREST RATES

In its most recent interest rate announcement, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the influential overnight rate at 1.75 per cent, where it has been since October 2018. Though there is some global uncertainty, the Bank says, the Canadian economy is resilient, citing moderately expanding consumer spending, stronger wage growth and housing investment, increasing population and continuing low mortgage rates.

Many experts foresee mortgage rates holding where they are throughout 2020 – if not declining.

Indeed, James Laird, co-founder of Ratehub Inc. and president of CanWise Financial mortgage brokerage, predicts BoC will cut the overnight rate by a quarter point in the second half of 2020.

In 2019, central banks around the world cut their rates, but Canada was not among them. Facing somewhat slowing economic growth driven by decreased exports and a slightly higher unemployment rate, Canada will follow this trend and cut the overnight rate by 0.25 per cent in the latter half of 2020, Laird says.

“These savings will be passed along to variable rate mortgage holders in the form of a lower prime rate,” Laird says. “Therefore, Canadians who are in a variable rate will see their interest rate drop in the second half of the year.”

The Bank’s rate policy will cause fixed mortgage rates to remain low throughout the year, he adds. This should provide peace of mind to Canadians who have a mortgage up for renewal or those who have plans to purchase a new home in 2020.

4 GOVERNMENT INVOLVEMENT

The Canadian Home Builders’ Association, Ontario Home Builders’ Association, Building Industry and Land Development Association, Toronto Real Estate Board – and other relevant industry bodies – are all lobbying hard for the various levels of government to address the issues facing housing. Ranging from the First-Time Home Buyers’ Incentive Program, the mortgage stress test or land-use policies that affect the level of homebuilding – and therefore buying – one thing is clear: Federal, provincial and municipal levels of government are listening.

(Many of the executives in our Outlook 2020 Q&As in the following pages touch on these issues, and we’ll have another related special feature in our February issue.)

At least one major source says governments have little choice but to take action. The Real Estate Investment Network (REIN), a real estate investment education, analysis and research firm, cites increasing immigration as the catalyst for change.

“An increase in the influx of migrants amounting to over one million people in three years is tantamount to increasing rental demand,” says Jennifer Hunt, vice-president of research at REIN. “This is good news for rental housing providers, as migrants have higher tendencies to rent property rather than to purchase their own homes, especially within the first four years of settling in Canada.”

Once settled and secure in employment, however, many of these new Canadians want to become homeowners, which leads to higher demand for housing, including new homes and condos.

5 FTHBI & THE STRESS TEST

The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive is a shared equity mortgage through CMHC. The program is intended to reduce monthly mortgage payments for first-time homebuyers, without increasing the amount they need to save for a down payment.

Though some recent adjustments to the program, including raised purchase limits for high-priced markets such as Toronto and Vancouver, have helped, some are calling for further improvements to the plan.

REIN, for one, suggests watching for a potential increase of the FTHBI’s purchase price limit to nearly $800,000 in high-priced markets.

Ratehub is not convinced, expecting that the FTHBI will not be enhanced, and the existing program will see minimal traction.

“Less than five per cent of Canadians who are eligible for the FTBHI program will elect to use it,” says Laird. “Most Canadians do not want the government to own part of their home.”

REIN and Laird agree the mortgage stress test, which many in the industry have been calling to be changed, will likely remain unchanged.

Special Report: Outlook 2020:

Jordan DeBrincat, Director of Operations, Altree Developments

Fan Yang, Deputy General Manager (Eastern Canada), Aoyuan Property Holdings (Canada) Ltd.

Nick Carnicelli, President, Carriage Gate Homes

Jared Menkes, Executive Vice-President, Menkes High Rise

Anson Kwok, Vice-President Sales & Marketing, Pinnacle International

Angela Marotta, Director of Sales & Marketing, Solmar Development Corp

Samson Fung, Vice-President Marketing, Tridel

Jim Andrews, Director of Sales & Marketing Fieldgate Homes

Shakir Rehmatullah, President Flato Development Inc.

Mike Parker, Vice-President Sales & Marketing Georgian International Build Corp.

Brad Carr, CEO Mattamy Homes Canada

Deena Pantalone, Managing Partner and Director of Marketing & Innovation National Homes

Art Rubino, Contracts Manager & Marketing Manager Regal Crest Homes

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


cl_jan20_2020_prediction_jared_menkes_fi

Outlook 2020 – Jared Menkes, Executive Vice-President, Menkes High Rise

Latest News


Outlook 2020 – Jared Menkes, Executive Vice-President, Menkes High Rise

Part of our series of Outlook 2020 Q&As with building industry executives

Condo Life: What is the outlook for the new home industry in 2020?

Menkes: This year will continue to be a year of low supply and high demand, which will keep housing prices high, especially in prime locations. Overall, the 905 has experienced the largest growth, and will continue to grow, however the largest demand continues to be for housing along mass transit. Vaughan, in particular, will continue to be a very desirable location.

Housing supply will continue to fall short of meeting demand. RBC reported that Toronto CMA needs 22,000 new rental apartments and rented condominium units per year to satisfy demand between 2019 and 2023.

RBC also says that even if we anticipate that 70 per cent of all new condos are rented, and we have 4,000 new purpose-built rental apartments in the GTA every year, we still wouldn’t hit that 22,000-unit mark.

Jared Menkes
Jared Menkes, Executive Vice-President, Menkes High Rise

CL: And for Menkes?

Menkes: From a highrise perspective, sales for our projects in 2019 were strong and continue to demonstrate that people desire walkable communities in proximity to transit. Sugar Wharf on the Toronto waterfront was named the bestselling condo project in Canada for 2018, then we had a top-selling mixed-density project in Vaughan with Mobilio. With that success, we’ve moved to an even bigger four-tower project nearby, which will launch this year. Our prime locations, combined with the fact the city continues to experience a housing shortage, leads me to believe that we’ll experience strong sales in 2020.

CL: What is your company doing to address the issues facing the homebuilding industry – namely, affordability and new home supply?

Menkes: With many families priced out of the downtown core, they’re looking for more affordable options in the 905. At Mobilio, one of our most recent projects in Vaughan Metropolitan Centre (VMC), we’re offering a mix of housing types on one site, so we’re catering to every type of family and lifestyle. Since the community is close to Vaughan’s new subway station and all that VMC will offer over the next decade – including offices, shops and restaurants – we’re also fulfilling the desire to live in an urban setting at a more affordable price than downtown.

As the largest employment centre in York Region, Vaughan is becoming an increasingly desirable option for both young professionals and families. Festival, our latest highrise project in VMC, will be a four-tower community which will fulfill the area’s fundamental need for more density.

Clearly, family-friendly condos are an increasingly important segment in the market. Menkes will continue to deliver projects that offer familyfriendly amenities such as playrooms, entertaining spaces and co-work areas.

Townhomes, such as the ones we launched at Mobilio in Vaughan, are also offering families a more affordable option in an urban setting. We will continue to offer more townhomes with our Lake & Town project that will be coming to South Etobicoke this year.

CL: What more could the industry do to address these issues?

Menkes: We need a healthier, more balanced market. People don’t have choices right now. The City and Province need to take a look at getting more supply on the market, and developers simply need to continue to build more product. Regardless of whether new housing is “affordable,” more supply will eventually lead to lesser discrepancy between supply and demand, and therefore reduce costs in the long run.

CL: What should prospective new-home buyers know about your company for 2020?

Menkes: Our reputation speaks for itself, but if buyers want to know the quality of a Menkes building, they can tour one of our buildings themselves. We are very proud of all our projects and believe the best way for buyers to educate themselves on builders is to actually see their work.

CL: Why should prospective new-home buyers consider buying from your company in 2020?

Menkes: There has increasingly been a flight to quality by prospective homeowners, opting for brands they know and trust, and we are fortunate to be one of those brands. We have reputation as one of Toronto’s top builders because not only do we take pride in the quality of our work, but we continue to deliver. We take it very seriously that people are investing their life savings with us.

Also, it’s important for builders to be innovative and to shift as homeowner needs and trends change. We have done this in the past – as we saw the trend to more families living in highrise buildings – and we will continue to do so.

We also manage our projects, which puts us at an advantage because we have the opportunity to get daily feedback on the management and operations of our buildings, and we strive to continuously improve.

Special Report: Outlook 2020

Outlook 2020 – 5 things you need to know about real estate this year

Outlook 2020 – Angela Marotta, Director of Sales & Marketing, Solmar Development Corp.

Outlook 2020 – Anson Kwok, Vice-President Sales & Marketing, Pinnacle International

Outlook 2020 – Samson Fung, Vice-President Marketing, Tridel

Outlook 2020 – Samson Fung, Vice-President Marketing, Tridel

Outlook 2020 – Nick Carnicelli, President, Carriage Gate Homes

Outlook 2020 – Fan Yang, Deputy General Manager, Aoyuan

Outlook 2020 – Jordan DeBrincat, Director of Operations, Altree Developments

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


2019 web

Forecast 2019 – where are Canada’s hottest housing markets?

Latest News


Forecast 2019 – where are Canada’s hottest housing markets?

2019 web

Wondering where Canada’s hottest housing markets are, as 2018 comes to a close and 2019 is just around the corner? Well, that all depends on who you ask.

Two of Canada’s large realty firms – Royal LePage and ReMax – both issued their 2019 housing market outlooks on Dec. 11.

Yes, the very same day.

Rather than produce two stories on the exact same topic, just from different sources, we thought it would be interesting to compare them. And while there are some commonalities in their forecasts, there are also some interesting discrepancies.

There is no ‘Canadian’ market

Let’s begin with the headline of ReMax’s 2019 Housing Market Outlook: “Canadian home prices expected to increase by 1.7 per cent in 2019.”

Yeah, about that. Forget that headline. As we recently wrote, those national numbers are pretty meaningless. It’s like trying to summarize the weather, temperature or traffic as “Canadian.”

But, just for comparison purposes, ReMax estimates Canadian home prices will grow 1.7 per cent in 2019; Royal LePage, 1.2 per cent.

National numbers that do matter are interest rates, GDP growth and employment. Then there’s immigration, which affects some markets more than others, mortgage regulations and housing supply. All of these factors are the key drivers of real estate. But more on that later.

Now let’s take a look at some of the regional highlights.

GTA

ReMax says:

  • Toronto average prices down 4% in 2018 to $789,181
  • Toronto average prices forecast to rise 2% in 2019 to $804,964

In Toronto, rising interest rates and the mortgage stress test were the two major factors affecting market activity in 2018, with average sale prices dropping by four per cent from $822,572 in 2017 to $789,181 in 2018, and unit sales down by 16 per cent. Lack of affordability in the single-detached segment will make it difficult for buyers wanting to enter this market. Resale condos, on the other hand, now represent almost 37 per cent of total sales, fueled by affordability.

ReMax Housing Market Outlook, select major markets

Region 2018

 Average Home Price

 

2019

Average Home Price

(Forecast)

Year-over-Year

(%)

Vancouver $1.05M $1.01M -3.0%
Edmonton $379,539 $360,562 -5.0%
Calgary $487,399 $487,399 0.0%
Saskatoon $333,187 $343,182 0.6%
Regina $322,500 $322,500 0.0%
Winnipeg $323,001 $335,921 4.0%
Windsor $299,750 $329,725 10.0%
London $379,654 $398,636 5.0%
Kitchener-Waterloo $473,275 $487,473 3.0%
Hamilton-Burlington $707,949 $849,538 2.0%
Barrie $477,839 $492,174 3.0%
Oakville $1.08M $1.13M 5.0%
Mississauga $705,406 $733,622 4.0%
Brampton $577,846 $600,959 4.0%
Durham $594,585 $612,422 3.0%
Toronto $789,181 $804,964 2.0%
Ottawa $678,670 $705,816 4.0%
Halifax $299,982 $308,981 3.0%
St. John’s $265,523 $265,523 0.0%

 

Elsewhere in Ontario

Rising interest rates and the stress test continue to make it difficult for prospective buyers in Barrie, Oakville and Durham regions.

“This is particularly true for first-time buyers and single Millennials, as evident in cities like Brampton, Kingston and Durham,” says Christopher Alexander, executive vice-president and regional director, ReMax of Ontario-Atlantic Canada.

Hottest in the province

The hottest market in Ontario? Windsor, which showed price growth of 13 per cent in 2018, to $299,750, with another 10 per cent increase forecast for 2019. London is also expected to be strong, with prices to increase another five per cent next year, after rising 17 per cent this year to reach $379,654.

 

Royal LePage says:

  • GTA average price in 2018 $844,000
  • GTA average price forecast to rise 1.3% to $854,552

“Compared to the record pace of home appreciation seen in 2016 and 2017, the GTA housing market is now positioned for much healthier and sustainable growth in future years,” says Chris Slightham, broker and owner, Royal LePage Signature Realty.

Many regions outside of Toronto’s core saw price declines in 2018, a result of overshooting in previous years. The continued population growth should cause the suburbs to stabilize and reignite price growth. In addition, the potential subway expansion into the suburbs should stabilize and increase home prices in close proximity to new transit infrastructure.

Elsewhere in Ontario

The median price in Ottawa is expected to increase 2.5 per cent in 2019 to $487,910, benefitting from the city’s healthy economy and high income per household, driven by the public and technology sectors.

Interestingly, Royal LePage also notes that neither the new mortgage rules nor recent interest rate hikes have notably affected Ottawa’s housing market.

 

Highlights from other Canadian markets

The star performer of all major Canadian markets in 2019? Montreal, according to Royal LePage.

“Quebec will out-perform the nation in 2019,” says President and CEO Phil Soper. “Like other regions of the country, the economy is strong and people are working. What is different is affordability. We have to remember that Montreal sat out the rapid home price inflation we saw in Vancouver and Toronto this decade, and in Calgary the decade before.”

As for the ReMax outlook for Montreal, Quebec did not participate in this year’s forecast.

 

 

Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast

Region  

2018 Aggregate Home Price
(Year End Estimate)


2019 
Aggregate
Home Price 
(Forecast)
Year-over-Year (%)
Canada $631,000 $638,257 1.2%
Greater Toronto Area $844,000 $854,552 1.3%
Greater Montreal Area $409,000 $421,306 3.0%
Greater Vancouver $1.28M $1.29M 0.6%
Ottawa $476,000 $487,910 2.5%
Calgary $484,000 $473,104 -2.3%
Edmonton $386,000 $378,691 -1.9%
Winnipeg $306,000 $309,829 1.3%
Halifax $321,000 $326,096 1.6%
Regina $327,000 $311,505 -4.7%

 

Influential factors

Now for more on those national factors that do influence real estate.

“I would call attention to two factors influencing our forecast that deserve special consideration,” says Soper. “Firstly, home prices are appreciating, albeit at a snail’s pace. Secondly, the Canadian market is supported by strong economic fundamentals, including a robust rate of new household formation and excellent employment growth.

“The future for Canadian housing remains bright, perhaps too bright. With an increasing number of gainfully employed people looking to put a roof over their heads, and the scarce availability of rental accommodation, policy makers in our major markets will once again be struggling with housing shortages. More than an affordable housing problem, we will once again be facing an overall housing supply crisis.”

As for interest rates, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate of 1.75 per cent on Dec. 5, citing a weaker than expected energy sector. Further rate increases are expected in 2019, making it more difficult for Canadians to buy a home in 2019.

The Bank forecasts GDP will increase 2.1 per cent in 2019, a modest increase over 2018, while Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6 per cent in November, the lowest on record since 1976.

RELATED READING

5 things we can learn from real estate in 2018

7 factors that will affect GTA housing in 2019 – and 5 reasons to consider buying NOW

GTA moving into balanced market for 2019

GTA new home market gains further momentum in October

Delays in approval process contributing to housing affordability issue in GTA

What the GM plant closure means for Oshawa economy and housing market

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


2018 web

5 things we can learn from real estate in 2018

Latest News


5 things we can learn from real estate in 2018

2018 web

With much of 2018 in the rear-view mirror, It’s been quite the year for the housing market in the GTA and elsewhere in Ontario. From sales and price fluctuations to supply concerns to rising housing costs. As 2019 approaches, here are five things we can learn from real estate in 2018.

 

1 Get used to the affordability issue

Get used to affordability challenges, especially in the GTA. This oft-cited issue is not going away any time soon, despite lobbying from the likes of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB).

Key economic fundamentals such as population and employment growth will continue to drive housing market demand. Over the next decade, almost 700,000 first-time buyers will target the GTA or Hamilton markets, according to a report from the Ontario Real Estate Association. Meanwhile, the supply of new homes is not yet being addressed, which contributes to rising prices.

With recent interest rate hikes and other changes, sales and prices in the GTA saw some moderation in 2018. But this will be short-lived, and a return to price growth is expected.

 

2 Increased government involvement – finally

Government lobbying by BILD and TREB seems to be paying off, in the sense that the Province is increasingly aware of the issues facing the industry – and buyers.

Buyers, you may not realize it, but you should thank BILD, TREB and other associations for that.

In late November, Ontario announced it was committing to a housing action plan “to help create more housing faster, give people more choice and bring down housing costs.”

Like anything involving government, though, this process will likely be slow moving – meaning, some of the challenges, namely increasing housing supply – will take time to be resolved.

But at least the issues are on the agenda.

One real example of this improved awareness is Ontario’s recent plan to change the 40-year-old apprenticeship system in the province – a move the home building industry says is a “game changer.”

It’s a game changer because the new one-to-one ratio, a significant change from the existing 3-to-1 ratio, will enable home builders and renovators to more easily hire and train new apprentices. Besides creating more job opportunities for trades workers, the move also helps builders and renovators operate their businesses

 

3 Fixing on interest rates

The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate three times in 2018 – January, July and October – to where it sits now, 1.75 per cent.

Canada’s major banks, as is usually the case, responded by immediately raising their own rates.

Naturally, all of this has Canadians feeling a little uneasy.

The Conference Board of Canada’s latest Index of Consumer Confidence confirms that rising interest rates and weaker wage growth have started to take their toll on confidence. With interest charges squeezing Canadian wallets and weakening wage growth offering little reprieve, consumers have become hesitant to make major purchases and are less positive about the state of their finances.

In its latest rate announcement on Dec. 5, the Bank of Canada noted that global economic expansion is slowing, and the effects of the “oil price shock” are being monitored.

“We expect that the Bank will not move the overnight rate until the effects of the declining energy sector are known,”according to interest rate comparison website ratehub.ca. “However, the Bank makes it clear that they still plan on raising the key interest rate in 2019, likely more than once.”

This moderated stance might put downward pressure on fixed rate mortgages, however, so Canadians may see better fixed rates in the coming weeks, ratehub.ca says.

 

4 Real estate is more local than ever

It’s a simple point that escapes some consumers: Real estate is local, and in 2018, it became more local than ever.

What do we mean?

Well, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) and other major real estate bodies are mandated to oversee the national market.

So, when CREA issues a release that says Canadian home sales are down by X per cent, or when CMHC reports the national vacancy rate is down for the second consecutive year – and major media report such headlines – people tend to worry.

It’s essential to remember, however, that when you buy a home, you don’t buy the national market. You buy one house, on one street, in one neighbourhood, in one city and region.

If you live in Ontario, why do you care that Alberta’s ongoing oil industry struggles are pulling sales and prices down in markets in that province? Or that prices in Vancouver are even less affordable than in Toronto?

Forget the national headlines. Drill down into what’s happening in your market.

And why is real estate more local then ever? Because…

 

5 Lessons from Oshawa

General Motors Canada’s November announcement that it was closing its Oshawa assembly plant sent shockwaves not just through the province but all of Canada. To be sure, the loss of at least 2,500 jobs – not to mention untold positions in related suppliers – in a community of 170,000, is going to hurt. Hurt whom, and how badly, are the only questions.

This development should serve as a stark reminder to us all – of how important it is for cities to develop diversified, modern economies. Overdependence on any one ge, singular industries leads to overexposure in the case of downturns or, in GM’s case, outright shutdowns. It hurts the local economy, which impacts employment and wage growth, which impacts the housing market.

Oshawa, thankfully in recent years, has been diversifying its economy and expanding in technology, education and other industries. It will help, but the impact of the GM closure will likely play out over many months, if not years.

These developments could push housing in Oshawa into a buyers’ market, and prospective buyers could benefit from more options and softening prices.

In new homes, builders remain undeterred, encouraged by the longer-term growth and development throughout the Durham Region. Still, some may offer incentives such as discounts or inclusions to entice qualified buyers.

 

RELATED READING

GTA moving into balanced market for 2019

GTA new home market gains further momentum in October

What the GM plant closure means for Oshawa’s economy and housing market

New home buying opportunities abound in Oshawa and Durham Region

Where are interest rates headed in 2019?

 

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


Celebrity_Dec_EyeCandy_fi

Bruce Willis finally sells Idaho home

Latest News


Bruce Willis finally sells Idaho home

Bruce Willis has something new to remember for 2018 — the sale of the home he has had on the market since 2011. Though he bought it in 2003 for less than its final sale price of $5.5 million (U.S.) — a sales record in the Hailey, Idaho area — it was an excruciating drop from its original list price of $15 million.

In the last 15 years, Willis rebuilt the main house, added a guest house, gym, streams and ponds and paid years of property taxes, so whether he made profit, broke even or took a loss is not known. For Willis, no longer having to worry about finding a buyer or upkeep is likely worth the outcome.

No stranger to collecting exceptional real estate, Willis has been buying and selling homes for years. He has owned a number of homes in the Los Angeles area, Idaho, apartments in Manhattan and most recently purchased a mansion in Bedford, N.Y. As more and more of Hollywood’s actors segue into buying and flipping real estate, Willis is near the top of the list. In recent years, he has been gravitating towards more real estate activity on the East Coast.

Sited on 20 acres between Hailey and Ketchum on Flying Heart Lake, the Willis’ Idaho compound is completely private with thick woodlands and multiple ponds and streams. The 8,403-square-foot home is a six-bedroom, seven-bath log house with heated terraces, balconies and driveway. Inside there are vaulted ceilings, views of Flying Heart Lake and the mountains, three fireplaces and a large gourmet kitchen.

The 2,200-square-foot master suite has a fireplace and sitting area with jetted soaking tub, granite steam shower and large walk-in closet and dressing room with built-in dressers and shelving. Outside there is a resort-size heated swimming pool with waterfalls and slides. Skiing, hiking, biking, live music and theatre are only minutes away from the gated, secure property.

Since gaining his spot as one of America’s favourite actors with the five television seasons of Moonlighting, Willis has continued making popular box office films, acted on Broadway and branched into singing and recorded an album. His Die Hard trilogy of films gained him the moniker “action hero,” which will likely stay with him forever. Never slowing down — with four new films this year and three in various stages of production for 2019 with an additional one rumoured — one wonders if he ever has a chance to visit any of his lovely collection of homes.

After a decade on the market, Bruce Willis’s Idaho nature retreat has finally sold, thanks to his new hero, listing agent Travis Jones of Engel & Volkers, Ketchum, Idaho. Originally listed in 2011 for $15 million, with brokerage changes and price changes through the years, the final list price was $5.895 million and it sold for $5.495 million.

https://www.toptenrealestatedeals.com/

SHARE  

Featured Products


5 steps

5 steps to solving the housing affordability issue in Ontario

Latest News


5 steps to solving the housing affordability issue in Ontario

5 steps

Promising to create more housing supply was the first step, now industry leaders are calling on the Ford Government to action solutions that will bring much-needed supply into the marketplace and help solve the housing affordability issue facing many Ontarians.

This week, leaders from housing associations – the Ontario Real Estate Association (OREA), Ontario Home Builders Association (OHBA) and the Federation of Rental-Housing Providers of Ontario (FRPO) – gathered at the second annual Housing Summit event to examine bold policy prescriptions that will help Millennials get their hands on the keys to their first home.

“Keeping the dream of home ownership alive in Ontario requires bold policies and action from the provincial government,” says Tim Hudak, chief executive officer, OREA.

“First and foremost, to get more new homes in the marketplace, the building approvals process must be streamlined and zoning updated to allow for more homes in the right places. The best and fastest way to give Ontario’s first-time homebuyers a break is to eliminate the punishing land transfer tax for first-time buyers.”

“#Homebelievers know that government can support more housing choice and supply needed to make the great Canadian dream of home ownership a reality in existing, expanding, and established communities across Ontario,” adds OHBA chief executive officer Joe Vaccaro.

As advocates for greater home supply and home affordability in the province, OREA, OHBA and FRPO say the solutions to keeping housing within reach for young Ontarians include:

1 Speed up the planning approvals process

The home development approvals process can take up to 10 years in some parts of Ontario. Better alignment of municipal and provincial housing priorities, will get new homes to the market faster.

2 Build more homes and build them higher around and above transit stations

Use “As of Right” zoning to ensure housing intensification along rail transit lines and stations, exactly where many Millennials want and need them.

3 Provide first-time home buyer tax relief

Eliminate the land transfer tax for first-time homebuyers or dramatically increase the current rebate offered to first-timers.

4 Bring back the Ontario Municipal Board

The traditional role of the OMB has been to take the NIMBY out of housing decisions. Bringing back the OMB means evidence-based planning decisions, which will create more housing supply and choice.

5 Create new rental stock by reducing barriers and red tape

Adjust the annual rent increase guideline to CPI plus two per cent, implement a 20-year rent control rolling exemption on new construction and maintain vacancy decontrol.

RELATED READING

5 affordable neighbourhoods for detached homes in 416 and 905

Keesmaat’s 100,000 housing plan doomed to fail

The answer to affordable housing is supply, supply, supply

Build For Growth: Housing Affordability

 

SHARE  

Featured Products


rc_jun20_2018_fi

Correction course?

Latest News


Correction course?

After years of steady price escalation across the country, government efforts to curtail the risk of a real estate bubble seem to be putting the brakes on things. In March, total home sales nationally were down nearly 23 percent compared to March 2017, and average prices dropped 10 percent. Toronto alone was responsible for much of the decline with detached houses down 15 percent (albeit, still at an average of $1.3 million).

SHARE  

Featured Products