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Canada Outlook NEW

Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

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Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

Canada Outlook NEW

 

By Wayne Karl

Canada’s housing market should see a moderation in both housing starts and sales, while home prices are expected to reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth. This forecast for 2019 and 2020 is drawn from the 2018 Housing Market Outlook from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

Nationally, CMHC’s outlook for 2019 projects total housing starts to edge down and range between 193,700 to 204,500, with the downward trend expected for both single and multi-unit starts. MLS sales are expected to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units annually while MLS prices should lie between $501,400 and $521,600.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist, CMHC. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”

Ontario recovery

After dampened market activity in 2018, existing home sales and housing starts in Ontario, particularly in single-family homes, will post a partial recovery in 2019. Buyers are expected to re-enter the market on the strength of stronger than expected job growth and in-migration, before the downward trend in starts and sales resumes in 2020.

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

GTA growth

With balanced conditions prevailing in the GTA, CMHC expects moderate sales growth and home prices growing in line with inflation. The rising costs of homeownership will result in strong rental demand, while new supply will add some upward pressure on vacancy rates. Toronto buyers should see more housing choices as builders concentrate their efforts on new highrise projects.

OTHER REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Housing starts activity and MLS sales in BC should moderate, as economic and population growth slows while MLS average prices are expected to see a flatter growth profile through 2020.

Vancouver
Over the next two years, Metro Vancouver’s resale market will see lower sales, higher inventories of homes for sale and lower home prices compared with recent market highs. Through 2018, demand and home prices softened across all market segments and local geographies.

PRAIRIES
Buyers’ market conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan should gradually shift to a balanced market with gradual improvement in economic and demographic fundamentals. Balanced market conditions in Manitoba are expected to continue.

Calgary
Various factors will push and pull the demand for housing in Calgary in 2019 and 2020. Calgary’s economy will experience stronger growth in population and employment. This will help support demand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. However, the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure but is expected to stabilize in 2019 and modestly rise in 2020.

QUEBEC
Housing starts and sales of existing homes will both be sustained, however, slower economic growth and rising borrowing costs will moderate activity through 2020. Starts will continue to be dominated by the apartment market segment, while demand for resale single-detached homes will remain relatively strong.

Montreal
In 2018 and 2019, rental housing demand will increase slightly faster than supply in Montreal, which will put some downward pressure on the vacancy rate. Demand will be supported by rising net migration over the forecast horizon.

ATLANTIC CANADA
The Atlantic region will see sustained activity, notably in Nova Scotia, where existing home sales and average prices should trend higher while rental demand will drive growth in apartment construction.

RELATED READING

7 factors that will affect GTA housing in 2019 – and 5 reasons to consider buying NOW

 

 

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Finance: More Transparency Coming To Toronto Real Estate Market

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Finance: More Transparency Coming To Toronto Real Estate Market

Canadians will now have greater access to real estate sold prices in Toronto. In August the Supreme Court of Canada refused to hear the Toronto Real Estate Board’s (TREB’s) appeal to an earlier federal court decision that accused them of anti-competitive practices by the Competition Bureau.

This means all homes and condos listed on the MLS and sold in Toronto will be readily available without the need of a password or engaging an agent.

TREB’s major argument was concern around copyright and privacy. They said putting all this data online publicly would be problematic.

In a statement released after the Supreme Court refusal, TREB CEO John DiMichele said “TREB believes personal financial information of homebuyers and sellers must continue to be safely used and disclosed in a manner that respects privacy interests and will be studying the required next steps to ensure such information will be protected in compliance with the Tribunal Order once that comes into effect.”

This is a first for a major real estate board in Canada, but has been going on in the U.S. for more than 10 years. Here’s what to expect.

Better Informed Client

When working with a real estate agent, sellers and buyers will no longer have to ask them for comparative sales in the area. This is the best way to understand what a home’s market value is. When putting their house on the market, sellers can arm themselves with the latest data. Buyers as well can make offers with confidence as they will have been able to research the area they are looking to buy in on their own.

Agents Can Provide Better Service

Realtors serve a key role in the real estate transaction. They serve their client and make sure they get the best deal and guide clients through the process. For sellers they can help determine fair market value for your home, they arrange open houses and find potential buyers. Often, they have a roster of potential buyers they can show the house too as well.

For buyers, agents are often subject matter experts in the areas they service — knowing the history of the area and what streets are most sought after. When negotiating they ensure all the checks are done to make sure the home you are buying is being fairly represented.

What Changes Can We Expect?

With data now readily available, consumers can expect to see an increase in websites focused on this information. It’s not just active sellers and buyers interested, but any homeowner wants to know what their biggest investment (their home) is worth. Making data available in a user friendly way could be challenging, especially if a home has seen a number of transactions in a few years. Also making sure data is accurate and up to date is important. Expect to see a number of sites pop up dedicated to providing this information.

No Concern for Realtor’s Role

Those agents with a large client base and established reputation should not worry about their business being affected. The need for a knowledgeable agent, willing to work hard for their clients, will still exist. For those agents who may not have the same level of expertise, they may have to work harder to get up to speed on how they can provide a service to their client, other than regurgitated sold numbers. For those agents there may be a steep learning curve as the market in Toronto becomes more transparent. Looking further this could have an effect on other markets in Canada, especially those next door to Toronto, whose clients will demand the same level of access to sold prices.

Rubina Ahmed-haq is a journalist and personal finance expert. She is HPG’s Finance Editor. She regularly appears on CBC Radio and TV. She is a contributor on CTV Your Morning and Global Toronto. She has a BA from York University, received her post graduate journalism diploma from Humber College and has completed the CSC. Follow her on Twitter @alwayssavemoney.

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From top to bottom

From top to bottom

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From top to bottom

The most expensive home and the lowest priced home in the GTA (not including mobile homes or cottages).

HIGH

15350 Bathurst Street, King City
Price: $24,950,000
MLS Number: N4039081

Foxley Green encompasses about 80 acres with a commanding corner position at the gateway to Aurora. The main residence spans 21,630 square feet on two levels with a solid granite exterior, two elevators, indoor pool, main floor master suite, plus three additional bedroom suites. Also in the main house is a complete two-bedroom staff apartment.

The immaculately maintained property offers gardens, groomed hiking trails, a cold-water stream, deep pond with a skating pavilion, 13-stall riding stable, 3,800-square-foot guesthouse plus a three-bedroom staff home. There is a long gated driveway that leads to the main house.

This grand country estate is within a 10-minute drive to top private schools, area amenities and Highways 404 and 400.

Broker or Record: John Dunlap
Salesperson: Murray Snider
Moffat Dunlap Real Estate
16630 Dufferin Street, King City
905.841.7430


LOW

4689 Jane Street, Unit 502, Toronto
Price: $82,500
Maintenance fees: $664.38
MLS Number: W4144232

Located close to highways and York University in the Black Creek area, this two-bedroom spacious condo is ready for a new paint job. The unit comes with an underground parking space and a large balcony.

Broker: Accsell Realty Inc.
Salesperson: Shelly Anne Howe
5155 Spectrum Way, Unit 22 Mississauga
416.477.2300


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GTA home prices decline 12.4%

GTA home prices decline 12.4%

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GTA home prices decline 12.4%

TREB releases monthly market figures reported by GTA realtors

Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) president Tim Syrianos announced that GTA realtors reported 7,792 sales through TREB’s MLS System in April 2018. The average selling price was $804,584. On a year-over-year basis, sales were down by 32.1 per cent and the average selling price was down by 12.4 per cent.

The year-over-year change in the overall average selling price has been impacted by both changes in market conditions as well as changes in the type and price point of homes being purchased. This is especially clear at the higher end of the market.

Detached home sales for $2 million or more accounted for 5.5 per cent of total detached sales in April 2018, versus 10 per cent in April 2017.

The MLS Home Price Index strips out the impact of changes in the mix of home sales from one year to the next. This is why the MLS HPI Composite Benchmark was down by only 5.2 per cent year-over-year versus 12.4 per cent for the average price.

“While average selling prices have not climbed back to last year’s record peak, April’s price level represents a substantial gain over the past decade. Recent polling conducted for TREB by Ipsos tells us that the great majority of buyers are purchasing a home within which to live,” Syrianos said. “This means these buyers are treating home ownership as a long-term investment. A strong and diverse labour market and continued population growth based on immigration should continue to underpin long-term home price appreciation.”

After preliminary seasonal adjustment*, the month-over-month change (i.e. March 2018 to April 2018) in sales and the average selling price was minimal, with sales decreasing 1.6 per cent and the average selling price decreasing by 0.2 per cent.  The month-over-month sales trend has flattened out over the past two months following a steeper drop-off in January and February.

“The comparison of this year’s sales and price figures to last year’s record peak masks the fact that market conditions should support moderate increases in home prices as we move through the second half of the year, particularly for condominium apartments and higher density lowrise home types,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s sirector of market analysis. “Once we are past the current policy-based volatility, homeowners should expect to see the resumption of a moderate and sustained pace of price growth in line with a strong local economy and steady population growth.”

“With a provincial election campaign about to begin, GTA realtors hope that all of the provincial parties will make housing issues a priority. Homeownership is a worthwhile investment that benefits our economy, individual finances and quality of life,” said Syrianos.

“In recent months and years, there has been significant intervention in housing markets by all levels of government, through regulatory changes and taxation. We believe the next step should be tax relief, especially from Land Transfer Taxes, both provincial and the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, and efforts to facilitate an increase in the supply of missing middle housing that fills the gap between single family homes and highrises. Furthermore, we believe that any attempt to increase the Toronto Land Transfer Tax should require approval from the provincial government, given the significance of Toronto’s economy to the province and the connections between the Toronto real estate market and that of the broader GTA.”

______

* Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.


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TREB releases condo market report

TREB releases condo market report

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TREB releases condo market report

The average selling price for condominium apartments sold through TREB’s MLS system was up by 9 per cent year-over-year.

The Toronto Real Estate Board president Tim Syrianos announced that the average selling price for condominium apartments sold through TREB’s MLS system was up by 9 per cent year-over-year to $533,447 in the first quarter of 2018.

While the number of condominium apartment sales reported by GTA realtors in the first quarter was down by 29.7 per cent year-over-year to 5,084, so too were the number of new listings, which were down by 11.1 per cent annually to 8,030.

“Sellers’ market conditions for condominium apartments remained firmly in place in the first quarter of 2018. Strong competition between buyers underpinned price growth well above the rate of inflation,” Syrianos said. “We expect the condo market segment to remain strong through the remainder of 2018 and over the longer term, as buyers continue to see ownership housing as a quality long-term investment.”

Inventory levels for condominium apartments in the first quarter of 2018 were above the record lows experienced during the first three months of 2017. However, with months of inventory continuing to trend between 1.5 and 2 months, market conditions remain very tight from a historic perspective.

“The condominium apartment market segment continues to have the lowest price point on average compared to other major lowrise home types,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s director of market analysis. “It stands to reason that condos remain popular with first-time buyers. Strong demand relative to supply will see this segment perform well from a pricing standpoint for the remainder of 2018 and beyond.:

Protect consumers purchasing a former grow-op

On a related front, personal cultivation of cannabis should not be allowed inside homes as growing marijuana can pose significant health and safety issues for unsuspecting homebuyers, such as the growth of mould and fungus. With the legalization of marijuana looming, there are no rules in place to protect a homebuyer from purchasing a former grow operation.

“The provincial government needs to act now to bring forward measures that will ensure homebuyers are protected from the health and safety risks associated with former grow ops,” Syrianos said. “Policy makers must take action to protect Greater Toronto Area homeowners and address the long-term impact of legal marijuana cultivation on the housing stock.

“We are calling for measures to require inspection by municipal building officials, registration of remediation work orders on property title, mandate home inspectors to receive training on spotting former grow operations and restrict the number of plants that a homeowner can grow from four to one in units 1,000 square feet or smaller to protect multi-unit dwellings such as condos and apartments.

“Visit protectontariohomes.ca, launched by the Ontario Real Estate Association for more information on cannabis legalization and to take action.”

trebhome.com


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GTA's most expensive (and least expensive) home

GTA’s most expensive (and least expensive) home

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GTA’s most expensive (and least expensive) home

A search of the Multiple Listing Service at realtor.ca found the most expensive and least expensive homes in the GTA.

HIGH
469 Spadina Road, Toronto: $25 million
MLS Number: C4005944

New York meets Toronto at The Brownstones of Forest Hill Village. Builder AB8 Group is working with premier architect Richard Wengle, Master Chef Mark McEwan and Neff Kitchens, to create a luxury product offering a seamless blend of heritage and history in the heart of Forest Hill Village.

Once the site of a five-storey apartment complex, 469 Spadina Road promises the grandeur of a bygone era with its brownstone design. Based on the four-storey townhomes found in the U.S. and Europe, the innovative concept capitalizes on urban elegance in the 21st century.

The first floor is ideal for entertaining while the second floor is all about comfort and relaxation. The third and fourth floors are dedicated living quarters. The basement features a state-of-the art gym and multi-car garage. The rooftop terrace offers an unobstructed view of the city. Homes features five-plus-one bedrooms and eight bathrooms.

Re/Max Realtron Barry Cohen Homes Inc.
Barry Cohen, Broker
183 Willowdale Avenue, Unit 6, Toronto, 416-222-8600
Patricia Sun, salesperson, 416-930-6920

 



LOW
4645 Jane Street, Unit 828, Toronto: $59,900
MLS Number: W4002311

Great starter one-bedroom condo for a single person or a young couple at Edgeley in the Village. With a little TLC, this condo unit can bloom into a cozy and warm home. Open balcony, separate living and dining areas, parquet flooring, separate kitchen, one bathroom and one parking spot. Great views from balcony and living room. Steps to York University, shopping, Black Creek Pioneer Village and Farm and the new subway station at York and Black Creek. Includes light fixtures and appliances. Maintenance fees $594 per month.

Re/Max Premier Inc.
Wazir Shariff, Broker
1885 Wilson Avenue, Suite 200A, Toronto, 416-743-2000



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GTA's most expensive (and least expensive) home

GTA’s most expensive (and least expensive) home

Latest News


GTA’s most expensive (and least expensive) home

A search of the Multiple Listing Service at realtor.ca found the most expensive and least expensive homes in the GTA.

HIGH

68 THE BRIDLE PATH: $35 million
MLS number: C3910864

Quintessential gated French chateau-style home and preeminent country estate located on the highly sought-after Bridle Path. The home features nine above-grade bedrooms, 14 bathrooms, a games room and library.

The home offers spectacular grandeur on a four-acre ravine lot enhanced by manicured gardens, a stately fountain and a magnificent arboriculture paradise of privacy. Stone mansion exudes elegance, majesty and authenticity. The home features a 50-foot indoor swimming pool and an exquisite 18th-century period French onyx and marble fireplace mantles. Extras include custom granite, cobblestone driveway, formal granite and stone entrance, aged Italian marble floors, crown moulding, French doors, Downsview kitchen, elevator, Dectron pool system, tennis court, gazebo, potting cabin and golf cart.

Re/Max Realtron Barry Cohen Homes Inc.
Brokerage
183 Willowdale Avenue, Unit 6, Toronto, 416-222-8600
Patricia Sun, salesperson, 416-930-6920
Toll Free: 416-930-6920
barrycohenhomes.com



LOW

4673 JANE STREET, UNIT 1006: $58,000
MLS number: W3878963

A one-bedroom, one-bathroom condo with underground parking and locker and ceramic floors throughout. The bath has a mirrored sliding door and there is a sliding glass door to an enclosed balcony with a fabulous view. Large storage spaces and large hallway closet. Close to all amenities with a plaza across the street with supermarket, drug store, gas station, bank, restaurant, laundromat, doctor and dental offices, churches, schools and TTC at door. Walk to York University, Canada’s Wonderland is five minutes away, Black Creek Pioneer Village is walking distance. Extras: Fridge, stove, blinds (window coverings). Pets allowed, playground at back of building and 24-hour security. Maintenance fees are $566.43 a month.

Homelife Woodbine Realty Inc.
Brokerage
680 Rexdale Boulevard, Unit 202, 416-741-4443
Danny Tulshi, salesperson, 416-741-4443
homelifewoodbine.ca


Data provided by Toronto Real Estate Board. All information displayed is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified. No warranties or representations are made of any kind.

As of October 22, 2017



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Don’t play ball

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Don’t play ball

Today is one of only two days all year when there’s not a single regular season or playoff NHL, NBA, MLB, NFL, or MLS game being played. The other is July 12, the day after the MLB All-Star Game. That event, by the way, takes place in Miami on July 11.

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CREA updates and extends housing market forecast

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CREA updates and extends housing market forecast

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations in 2017 and 2018.
Canadian housing market trends continue to display considerable regional divergence. In British Columbia, activity in the Lower Mainland has cooled markedly from all-time highs recorded early last year. However, sales and price pressures elsewhere in the province remain historically strong.
In the resource-intensive provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador, sales activity is still running at lower levels and supply is elevated. This has resulted in weakened price trends for these provinces.
In housing markets around the Greater Toronto Area and including the furthest reaches of Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (the region includes the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Oakville-Milton, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo, Cambridge, Brantford, the Niagara Region, Barrie and nearby cottage country), the balance between supply and demand has become increasingly tight. This is expected to lead to continued double-digit price growth, resulting in further erosion in affordability and sales activity in the absence of a significant and sustained rise in new supply.
Elsewhere, housing markets in places like Manitoba, Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island have all experienced, to varying degrees, a breakout year in 2016 following a number of years of stagnation, with rising sales drawing down elevated supply.
Recently tightened mortgage rules, higher mortgage default insurance premiums and an expected rise in mortgage interest rates all represent headwinds to affordability in all Canadian housing markets. It will be some time before their full impact on housing markets is evident.


In some regions, the recently tightened “stress test” for mortgage financing qualification will force some first-time buyers to rethink how much home they can afford and may lead to a drop in home purchases as they shop for a lower priced home. In regions where there is a shortage of lower-priced inventory, some sales may be delayed as buyers save longer for a larger down payment.
In markets like Vancouver and Toronto, where single-family homes are in short supply and there are few affordable options, some buyers may find themselves priced out of the market entirely. In Toronto, the stress test for mortgage qualification may prompt some buyers to move further out into communities located in the Greater Golden Horseshoe where homes are more affordably priced.
Nationally, sales activity is forecast to decline by 3 per cent to 518,700 units in 2017. In line with CREA’s previous forecast, the upward revision to the sales forecast for Ontario offsets a downward revision to British Columbia’s.
British Columbia is forecast to see the largest decline in sales in 2017 (-17.5 per cent), followed by Prince Edward Island (-10.8 per cent). Activity in both provinces is retreating from all-time highs reached last year. Newfoundland and Labrador is also forecast to see a decline in sales in 2017 (-8.4 per cent ), continuing a softening trend that stretches back nearly a decade.
Alberta is forecast to have the largest increase in activity in 2017 (+5 per cent) that still leaves it nearly 10 per cent below the 10-year average.
Elsewhere, sales activity is forecast to be little changed from 2016 to 2017. Ontario sales are forecast to rise by less than 1 per cent in 2017, as strong demand runs up against an increasingly acute supply shortage.
In provinces where economic and housing market prospects are closely tied to the outlook for oil and other natural resource industries, average prices are showing tentative signs of stabilizing in Alberta while softening in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador.
While prices are still rising rapidly in Ontario, British Columbia has seen a compositional shift in the average price that reflects softer sales activity in the Lower Mainland, which has some of the most expensive real estate in Canada.
Average prices in other provinces are either rising modestly or holding steady, reflecting well-balanced supply and demand.
The national average price is forecast to rise by 4.8 per cent to $513,500 in 2017, with significant regional variations. The average price is expected to retreat by more than 5 per cent in British Columbia as well as Newfoundland and Labrador, by 2.8 per cent in Saskatchewan while rising by more than 15 per cent in Ontario.
In other provinces where average price last year began showing tentative signs of improving, average price gains are forecast to hold below the rate of inflation in 2017 as the impact of recent regulatory changes and higher expected mortgage rates lean against stronger demand and tighter market conditions.
In 2018, national sales are forecast to number 513,400 units, representing a decline of 1 per cent compared to the 2017 forecast. Most of the annual decline is the expected result from fewer sales in Ontario.
The national average price is forecast to rise by 5 per cent to $539,400 in 2018, reflecting ongoing market tightness in Ontario and a further return to more normal levels in British Columbia. Price gains outside of the Greater Golden Horseshoe are not expected to approach the increase in the national average price.
Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are projected to see average prices decline in 2018 by less than 1 per cent. In most other parts of Canada, home price increases are forecast to more or less track overall consumer price inflation in 2018.
http://www.crea.ca/

 

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