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GTA new home market sees increased activity in June

GTA new home market sees increased activity in June

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GTA new home market sees increased activity in June

The GTA new home market began to see more activity in June, following two months of historically slow sales due to the pandemic, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).

Plane flys over the city (Building signs are removed)
Plane flys over the city (Building signs are removed)

Sales of new single-family homes, accounting for 1,160 of the total of 1,904 new homes sold, were the highest for June since 2016, though still 12 per cent below the 10-year average, according to Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new home market intelligence. Single-family homes include detached, linked, and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses).

Sales numbers for new condominium units, including units in low-, mid- and highrise buildings, stacked townhouses and lofts, at 744 units sold, were up compared to April and May, but still down 73 per cent from June 2019 and 70 per cent below the 10-year average.

“The June new home sales numbers are encouraging, though much remains to be seen as the GTA re-opens and begins recovery,” says David Wilkes, BILD president and CEO. “Now is the time to implement what we learned about facilitating the delivery of housing during the pandemic, to address our long-standing housing supply and affordability challenge while stimulating the local economy. Our industry is working with all three levels of government to help achieve these goals.”

“Single-family demand recovered more quickly as buyers returned and new supply started to come back into the market,” adds Matthew Boukall, Altus Group’s vice-president, Data Solutions. “Given the challenges around COVID-19 restrictions, we’ve seen developers adopt new strategies to reach consumers and have seen success in the lower density segments.”

The benchmark prices for both new condominium units and new single-family homes increased in June compared to the previous month. New condos rose to $999,228, up 24.2 per cent over the last 12 months. New single-family homes, meanwhile, increased in price 3.9 per cent over the last 12 months to $1.14 million.


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New home sales

GTA new home market quiet in May

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GTA new home market quiet in May

The GTA new home market saw another slow month in May, thanks largely to the impact of the pandemic, according to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD).

New home sales

With 866 new homes sold, it was the lowest May for total new home sales since Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new home market intelligence, began tracking in 2000. May’s total new home sales were down 81 per cent from May 2019, and 76 per cent below the 10-year average.

Single-family homes, including detached, linked and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses), accounted for 438 new home sales, down 55 per cent from last May and 68 per cent below the 10-year average. Sales of new condominium units, including units in low-, medium- and highrise buildings, stacked townhouses and loft units, at 428 units sold, were down 88 per cent from May 2019 and 80 per cent below the 10-year average.

“The fact that we have not seen much new supply brought to market in the last few months is not surprising, but it is concerning, given our region’s ongoing housing shortage,” says David Wilkes, BILD president and CEO. “An economic impact report we released with Altus (recently) shows that construction delays due to the pandemic won’t just affect housing supply but will also have fiscal implications, including a loss or delay of some $850 million in government revenues. All levels of government must work together to remove barriers to the renewal of construction activity that will help kick-start our economy.”

“Two months into the COVID-19 crisis, we are continuing to see the impact on available new home inventory numbers, with the number of new units brought to market in April and May reaching unprecedented low levels,” adds Matthew Boukall, Altus Group’s vice-president, Data Solutions. “Looking back at the market activity following the SARS outbreak in 2003, the industry will likely experience more months of disruptions to available inventory and sales.”

The benchmark price for new condo apartments in May was $985,436, up 26.4 per cent over the last 12 months; the benchmark price for new single-family homes was $1.1 million, which was even over the last 12 months.


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Real Estate Sales 2017 Year-End and 2018 Forecast

Real Estate Sales: 2017 Year-End and 2018 Forecast

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Real Estate Sales: 2017 Year-End and 2018 Forecast

In the GTA, 2017 set a record high in new condo apartment sales and a record low in single-family home sales

In the GTA new home market, 2017 was a year of declining inventory, high prices and strong sales, setting a record high in new condo apartment sales and a record low in single-family home sales, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) announced January 26, 2018.

Overall in 2017, there were 44,143 new homes sold in the GTA, according to Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new home market intelligence. That makes 2017 the fourth strongest year for new home sales in the GTA since Altus Group started tracking in 2000. Only 2002, 2011 and 2016 had stronger new homes sales, with 2002 being the highest at 53,660 units sold.

Of the new homes sold in 2017, 82.5 per cent (36,429 units) were condominium apartments in low, medium and highrise buildings, stacked townhouses and loft units, the highest number of condo apartments sold in any year in the GTA, while 17.5 per cent (7,714) were single-family homes, including detached, link, and semi-detached houses and townhouses (excluding stacked townhouses), the lowest number sold since Altus Group started tracking in 2000.

“Low inventory and escalating prices across the board are behind the highs and lows of the sales numbers we saw in 2017,” said David Wilkes, BILD’s new president and CEO. “Our industry wants to build new homes to increase the housing supply in the GTA, but we need municipalities to work with us to expedite the process by simplifying the development approval process, updating zoning by-laws to align with provincial policies and servicing developable land with critical infrastructure.”

The supply of new housing is typically measured by the number of new homes available for purchase in builders’ inventories at the end of the month and includes units in pre-construction, under construction and completed projects. At the end of December 2017, there were 11,397 new homes available for purchase, down 13.2 per cent from 13,136 at the end of December 2016 and 60.3 per cent below the 28,739 new homes available 10 years ago. Since 2000, the total inventory at the end of each month has typically been between 20,000 and 30,000 units. For over a year and a half now, it has been below 20,000 units.

The decline in single-family home inventory has been even more dramatic. At the end of December 2017, there were 3,481 new single-family homes available for purchase, down 74.4 per cent from 10 years ago.

New home prices rose again in December 2017, with the benchmark price for available new single-family homes at $1,225,774, which was 23.2 per cent above last December’s benchmark price of $995,116. Meanwhile the benchmark price for available new condo apartments was $716,772 in December, 41.3 per cent above the December 2016 benchmark price of 507,128.

“While many end user buyers have been looking to the new condominium apartment sector for more affordable homes, some are now starting to be priced out of this segment as well,” said Patricia Arsenault, Altus Group’s executive vice president of Research Consulting Services.

Wilkes said BILD will be raising issues of housing supply and affordability as the municipal elections approach this fall.

“As the GTA prepares for unprecedented growth, we must get this right to ensure the region continues to be one of the most dynamic and vibrant places to live,” he said. “We are calling on governments at all levels to ensure that people who choose to live in the GTA can afford to purchase a new home.”

December 2017 New Home Sales by Municipality

Dec. 2017 Condominium Apartments Single-family Total
Region 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015 2017 2016 2015
Durham 17 50 43 21 75 94 38 125 137
Halton 170 59 47 53 93 85 223 152 132
Peel 87 130 50 12 152 196 99 282 246
Toronto 352 1,692 1,031 8 32 17 360 1,724 1,048
York 218 345 155 65 277 226 283 622 381
GTA 844 2,276 1,326 159 629 618 1003 2,905 1,944
Source: Altus Group

bildgta.ca


Robust Activity Will Continue In 2018

The “2018 GTA Flash Report,” which provides a comprehensive review of the real estate market in the GTA based on 2017 data, was released January 26, 2018 by the Altus Group. The report highlights another record-breaking year for total investment property sales volumes, and looks at the performance of commercial leasing, land and residential sectors in the GTA.

Investment property sales, including land sales, as well as sales of office, retail, industrial, hotel and rental apartment properties, reached a total of $23.5 billion in 2017, a 38 per cent increase from 2016 and a record for the seventh consecutive year. Residential land sales contributed a record $8.5 billion to the total, up $2.8 billion over 2016.

In the office-leasing sector, the GTA-wide office vacancy rate fell in 2017 to 8.9 per cent (including vacant but leased space), even with the completion of 13 new office buildings that have added two million square feet of inventory. Most of the new office supply under construction is in the downtown submarket, where the vacancy rate at the end of 2017 was below 6 per cent.

Turning to the new home sector, Altus Group’s data shows that total new home sales in the GTA reached just over 44,000 units in 2017, the fourth highest level on record. New condominium apartment sales, which includes apartments in low, medium and high-rise buildings, lofts and stacked townhouses smashed the previous annual record set in 2016 with just over 36,400 units in 2017.

“Altus Group data show that homebuying intentions remain strong in the GTA, despite the many roadblocks that have been put in potential buyers’ way due to factors such as price escalation in recent years, rising interest rates, tighter lending criteria and additional stress testing,” said Matthew Boukall, senior director at Altus Group.

The buoyancy in the GTA real estate sector in 2017 is poised to continue this year according to Altus Group experts. Below are key predictions for 2018:

Office shared work spaces: The trend of renting workstations within a larger office space will grow in the GTA as low vacancy rates lead to higher rents. Look for this segment to grow not just in the downtown market, but throughout the GTA, as employers look to accommodate staff pushed further out in search of more affordable housing options.

Land sales: Residential land sales are expected to be strong in 2018, although higher prices and various policy changes have introduced more uncertainty to the land market. High-demand areas are likely to remain expensive, which could push some developers to seek more affordable options outside traditional core areas.

New homes market: New condominium apartment sales are expected to remain elevated in 2018. However, surpassing 2017 levels will be a challenge. While investor interest continues to be strong, some end user buyers who have been looking to the new condominium apartment sector for more affordable homes are now starting to be priced out of this segment as well. Some modest increase in new single-family sales is possible, however sales in this segment will continue to be challenged by lack of available product, in particular options that are affordable to a broader range of buyers.

Industrial and Retail: Demand for industrial space will remain strong as online and traditional retailers seek warehouse space to support their e-commerce business strategies. Retailers will continue to shrink their brick and mortar footprint and traditional retail space will continue to evolve as retail centres focus on consumer experiences, especially food themes, to draw in traffic.

Investment Property: Investor appetite will remain strong in 2018. With interest rates moving up, there is potential for some shift away from debt-financed buyers toward more cash-focused institutional buyers.

Download the full “GTA Flash Report 2018” at datasolutions.altusgroup.com/gta-flash-report-2018

altusgroup.com


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