Tag Archives: Housing Starts

Canada Outlook NEW

Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

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Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

Canada Outlook NEW

 

By Wayne Karl

Canada’s housing market should see a moderation in both housing starts and sales, while home prices are expected to reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth. This forecast for 2019 and 2020 is drawn from the 2018 Housing Market Outlook from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

Nationally, CMHC’s outlook for 2019 projects total housing starts to edge down and range between 193,700 to 204,500, with the downward trend expected for both single and multi-unit starts. MLS sales are expected to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units annually while MLS prices should lie between $501,400 and $521,600.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist, CMHC. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”

Ontario recovery

After dampened market activity in 2018, existing home sales and housing starts in Ontario, particularly in single-family homes, will post a partial recovery in 2019. Buyers are expected to re-enter the market on the strength of stronger than expected job growth and in-migration, before the downward trend in starts and sales resumes in 2020.

Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook

GTA growth

With balanced conditions prevailing in the GTA, CMHC expects moderate sales growth and home prices growing in line with inflation. The rising costs of homeownership will result in strong rental demand, while new supply will add some upward pressure on vacancy rates. Toronto buyers should see more housing choices as builders concentrate their efforts on new highrise projects.

OTHER REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Housing starts activity and MLS sales in BC should moderate, as economic and population growth slows while MLS average prices are expected to see a flatter growth profile through 2020.

Vancouver
Over the next two years, Metro Vancouver’s resale market will see lower sales, higher inventories of homes for sale and lower home prices compared with recent market highs. Through 2018, demand and home prices softened across all market segments and local geographies.

PRAIRIES
Buyers’ market conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan should gradually shift to a balanced market with gradual improvement in economic and demographic fundamentals. Balanced market conditions in Manitoba are expected to continue.

Calgary
Various factors will push and pull the demand for housing in Calgary in 2019 and 2020. Calgary’s economy will experience stronger growth in population and employment. This will help support demand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. However, the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure but is expected to stabilize in 2019 and modestly rise in 2020.

QUEBEC
Housing starts and sales of existing homes will both be sustained, however, slower economic growth and rising borrowing costs will moderate activity through 2020. Starts will continue to be dominated by the apartment market segment, while demand for resale single-detached homes will remain relatively strong.

Montreal
In 2018 and 2019, rental housing demand will increase slightly faster than supply in Montreal, which will put some downward pressure on the vacancy rate. Demand will be supported by rising net migration over the forecast horizon.

ATLANTIC CANADA
The Atlantic region will see sustained activity, notably in Nova Scotia, where existing home sales and average prices should trend higher while rental demand will drive growth in apartment construction.

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CMHC Housing Starts November 2017

CMHC reports housing starts realizes large gain in November 2017

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CMHC reports housing starts realizes large gain in November 2017

Trend in housing starts reached its highest level in almost 10 years, reflecting a second consecutive increase in multiple starts

OTTAWA (CNW) — The trend in housing starts was 226,270 units in November, compared to 216,642 units in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The trend in housing starts reached its highest level in almost 10 years this November, reflecting a second consecutive increase in multiple starts,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “This largely reflects construction of multiple units in Toronto, where evidence of overbuilding is low due to the decreasing inventory of completed and unabsorbed multiple units and strong demand.”

Monthly Highlights

 Toronto

Total housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended higher in November. Multiple-family dwelling starts trended significantly higher and contributed to the overall increase. Given escalating house prices of single-detached homes, more homebuyers continued to shift demand towards lower priced condominium apartments and townhomes. Higher sales of pre-construction condominium units in the past two years will continue to break ground throughout this year resulting in more condominium apartment starts.

Guelph

Guelph builders started 269 homes in November, significantly higher than the 62 homes started a year ago. This increase was due to the jump in apartment starts, which are above the 10-year average in response to strong demand from downsizing seniors, young households, immigrants and students. The rental market in Guelph is tight with a vacancy rate of 1.2 per cent. The strong demand for rental apartments has translated into more apartment starts. Single-detached and townhouse starts are lower this year. Fewer lowrise new home sales this year have translated into lower starts.

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

KitchenerCambridgeWaterloo builders started 658 homes in November, significantly higher than the 222 homes started a year ago. For the first 11 months of 2017, single-detached starts are lower, while starts for townhouses are up 51 per cent and for apartments, 26 per cent. Demographics are playing a role in new home construction, as there has been a shift to smaller households. One-person households, couples without children households and lone-parent households are increasing at a much faster pace than couples with children households, which stimulates demand for affordable options such as townhouses and apartments.

London

Total housing starts in London CMA posted one of the highest levels ever recorded for the month of November. Strong population growth and a low supply of resale home listings have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes, resulting in a 13 year high for single-detached starts during the month of November. In addition, stronger rental demand this year, indicated by the lowest vacancy rate since 2001, has already led to a higher number of apartment starts this year than the annual record set in 2016.

Vancouver

Seasonally adjusted monthly starts in the Vancouver CMA were lower in November mostly due to a pullback in apartment starts as the construction sector remains at full capacity. Fewer multi-family condo and rental projects are getting underway in the City of Vancouver, Richmond, and on the North Shore, meanwhile, Burnaby and New Westminster have observed higher multi-family starts so far in 2017, relative to the same period last year.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market, which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 252,184 units in November, up from 222,695 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 14.4 per cent in November to 235,412 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 16.9 per cent to 175,016 units in November. Single-detached urban starts increased by 7.5 per cent, to 60,396 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,772 units.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over

Single-Detached

All Others

Total

Nov. 2016

Nov. 2017

%

Nov. 2016

Nov. 2017

%

Nov. 2016

Nov. 2017

%

Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.

66

55

-17

27

57

111

93

112

20

P.E.I.

16

29

81

11

55

400

27

84

211

N.S.

127

113

-11

230

216

-6

357

329

-8

N.B.

62

83

34

65

107

65

127

190

50

Atlantic

271

280

3

333

435

31

604

715

18

Qc

520

546

5

2,325

3,536

52

2,845

4,082

43

Ont.

2,672

2,303

-14

2,466

6,202

152

5,138

8,505

66

Man.

190

202

6

309

303

-2

499

505

1

Sask.

188

141

-25

81

186

130

269

327

22

Alta.

1,016

1,000

-2

1,027

1,774

73

2,043

2,774

36

Prairies

1,394

1,343

-4

1,417

2,263

60

2,811

3,606

28

B.C.

832

1,005

21

2,826

2,813

0

3,658

3,818

4

Canada (10,000+)

5,689

5,477

-4

9,367

15,249

63

15,056

20,726

38

Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission

15

57

280

5

112

##

20

169

##

Barrie

44

83

89

12

73

##

56

156

179

Belleville

**

34

##

**

18

##

**

52

##

Brantford

8

8

14

2

-86

22

10

-55

Calgary

346

390

13

399

1,114

179

745

1,504

102

Edmonton

436

400

-8

550

526

-4

986

926

-6

Greater Sudbury

12

18

50

2

6

200

14

24

71

Guelph

16

19

19

46

250

443

62

269

334

Halifax

46

51

11

195

171

-12

241

222

-8

Hamilton

91

59

-35

81

366

352

172

425

147

Kelowna

93

88

-5

51

145

184

144

233

62

Kingston

38

11

-71

7

11

57

45

22

-51

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

97

88

-9

125

570

356

222

658

196

Lethbridge

**

34

##

**

6

##

**

40

##

London

141

163

16

84

478

469

225

641

185

Moncton

29

23

-21

16

91

469

45

114

153

Montréal

209

237

13

1,188

1,921

62

1,397

2,158

54

Oshawa

43

111

158

78

188

141

121

299

147

Ottawa-Gatineau

201

242

20

267

787

195

468

1,029

120

Gatineau

24

48

100

77

33

-57

101

81

-20

Ottawa

177

194

10

190

754

297

367

948

158

Peterborough

27

16

-41

9

0

-100

36

16

-56

Québec

90

66

-27

409

975

138

499

1,041

109

Regina

68

36

-47

30

102

240

98

138

41

Saguenay

17

19

12

26

41

58

43

60

40

St. Catharines-Niagara

122

110

-10

28

132

371

150

242

61

Saint John

6

25

317

6

2

-67

12

27

125

St. John’s

54

42

-22

24

52

117

78

94

21

Saskatoon

99

79

-20

25

60

140

124

139

12

Sherbrooke

28

22

-21

141

130

-8

169

152

-10

Thunder Bay

12

16

33

2

12

##

14

28

100

Toronto

1,308

886

-32

1,435

3,014

110

2,743

3,900

42

Trois-Rivières

16

13

-19

103

35

-66

119

48

-60

Vancouver

379

497

31

2,272

2,141

-6

2,651

2,638

0

Victoria

69

67

-3

199

156

-22

268

223

-17

Windsor

77

45

-42

63

96

52

140

141

1

Winnipeg

166

153

-8

291

291

457

444

-3

Total

4,403

4,208

-4

8,183

14,074

72

12,586

18,282

45

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

Preliminary Housing Start Data – Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)

Single-Detached

All Others

Total

Oct.2017

Nov.2017

%

Oct.2017

Nov.2017

%

Oct.2017

Nov.2017

%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.

517

526

2

511

612

20

1,028

1,138

11

P.E.I.

480

284

-41

252

660

162

732

944

29

N.S.

1,226

1,047

-15

1,180

2,420

105

2,406

3,467

44

N.B.

813

789

-3

2,154

1,266

-41

2,967

2,055

-31

Qc

6,191

6,440

4

43,848

38,311

-13

50,039

44,751

-11

Ont.

21,190

24,470

15

36,626

71,271

95

57,816

95,741

66

Man.

2,384

2,414

1

1,968

3,636

85

4,352

6,050

39

Sask.

1,825

1,570

-14

3,372

2,232

-34

5,197

3,802

-27

Alta.

11,960

11,078

-7

15,416

21,100

37

27,376

32,178

18

B.C.

9,604

11,778

23

44,341

33,508

-24

53,945

45,286

-16

Canada (10,000+)

56,190

60,396

7

149,668

175,016

17

205,858

235,412

14

Canada (All Areas)

69,161

73,247

6

153,536

178,937

17

222,695

252,184

13

Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission

260

688

165

1,140

1,344

18

1,400

2,032

45

Barrie

836

1,048

25

600

876

46

1,436

1,924

34

Belleville

391

489

25

276

216

-22

667

705

6

Brantford

151

142

-6

0

24

##

151

166

10

Calgary

4,465

4,178

-6

6,816

13,368

96

11,281

17,546

56

Edmonton

4,396

4,351

-1

4,764

6,312

32

9,160

10,663

16

Greater Sudbury

102

160

57

48

72

50

150

232

55

Guelph

254

263

4

288

3,000

##

542

3,263

##
Halifax

850

628

-26

840

2,052

144

1,690

2,680

59

Hamilton

708

752

6

1,080

4,392

307

1,788

5,144

188

Kelowna

748

839

12

1,212

1,740

44

1,960

2,579

32

Kingston

221

97

-56

168

132

-21

389

229

-41

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

865

968

12

1,236

6,840

453

2,101

7,808

272

Lethbridge

452

462

2

948

72

-92

1,400

534

-62

London

1,632

1,858

14

504

5,736

##

2,136

7,594

256

Moncton

340

190

-44

1,680

1,092

-35

2,020

1,282

-37

Montréal

2,653

2,741

3

38,178

23,021

-40

40,831

25,762

-37

Oshawa

491

1,485

202

3,096

2,256

-27

3,587

3,741

4

Ottawa-Gatineau

3,004

2,669

-11

3,816

9,444

147

6,820

12,113

78

Gatineau

423

471

11

504

396

-21

927

867

-6

Ottawa

2,581

2,198

-15

3,312

9,048

173

5,893

11,246

91

Peterborough

249

191

-23

48

0

-100

297

191

-36

Québec

769

737

-4

3,276

11,700

257

4,045

12,437

207

Regina

521

399

-23

1,212

1,224

1

1,733

1,623

-6

Saguenay

274

246

-10

324

492

52

598

738

23

St. Catharines-Niagara

870

1,101

27

2,376

1,584

-33

3,246

2,685

-17

Saint John

189

279

48

48

24

-50

237

303

28

St. John’s

368

391

6

504

624

24

872

1,015

16

Saskatoon

1,094

887

-19

1,884

720

-62

2,978

1,607

-46

Sherbrooke

202

247

22

1,092

1,560

43

1,294

1,807

40

Thunder Bay

114

149

31

360

144

-60

474

293

-38

Toronto

6,975

9,040

30

21,048

36,168

72

28,023

45,208

61

Trois-Rivières

188

176

-6

348

420

21

536

596

11

Vancouver

4,376

6,171

41

30,408

25,692

-16

34,784

31,863

-8

Victoria

881

795

-10

8,460

1,872

-78

9,341

2,667

-71

Windsor

615

574

-7

648

1,152

78

1,263

1,726

37

Winnipeg

1,783

1,842

3

1,524

3,492

129

3,307

5,334

61

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

SOURCE: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation



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CMHC September 2016 numbers

Toronto housing starts decrease in September: CMHC

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Toronto housing starts decrease in September: CMHC

Source: Marketwired

Housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended lower at 37,947 units in September 2016 compared to 42,125 in August 2016 according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“September saw fewer apartment starts in Toronto than earlier in the year, slowing the overall housing starts trend in the GTA,” said Dana Senagama, CMHC principal market analyst for the GTA. “However, limited supply of resale lowrise homes is shifting demand to the pre-construction market, leading to stable starts for this type of dwelling.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets, which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 30,232 units in September, down from 40,406 units in August. The decrease was mainly a result of fewer apartment starts.

The City of Toronto recorded the highest number of starts within the Toronto CMA primarily due to apartment starts. This was followed by the City of Brampton, which had a large number of single-detached starts. Next was the Town of East Gwillimbury, which saw construction start on a number of new lowrise housing units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

Canadian housing starts trend increases in September

The trend measure of housing starts in Canada was 199,503 units in September compared to 196,465 in August, according to CMHC. The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“Housing starts were on an upward trend in September, as residential construction increased across the country with the exception of Ontario, where the multiples segment softened to levels that are more consistent with household formation,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC chief economist. “Quebec saw the largest gain in housing starts due to the development of new rental apartments intended for seniors. That said, Quebec’s growing apartment stock emphasizes the importance of inventory management.”

The standalone monthly SAAR for all areas in Canada was 220,617 units in September, up from 184,201 units in August. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 19.7 per cent in September to 201,848 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 22.3 per cent to 137,803 units in September and single-detached urban starts increased by 14.5 per cent to 64,045 units.

In September, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia, Quebec, the Prairies and in Atlantic Canada, but decreased in Ontario.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,769 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

Follow CMHC on TwitterYouTubeLinkedIn and Facebook. For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca

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