Tag Archives: housing prices

Canadian, GTA markets to show resilience through COVID-19: Royal LePage

Canadian, GTA markets to show resilience through COVID-19: Royal LePage

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Canadian, GTA markets to show resilience through COVID-19: Royal LePage

Average Canadian – and GTA – home prices are expected to remain stable this year, despite the challenges brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast.

If the strict, stay-at-home restrictions characterizing the fight against COVID-19 are eased during the second quarter, prices are expected to end 2020 relatively flat, with the aggregate value of a Canadian home up a modest one per cent year-over-year, to $653,800. If restrictions are sustained through the summer, the negative economic impact is expected to drive home prices down by three per cent to $627,900 year-over-year, the realty firm says.

In December 2019, Royal LePage forecast the national aggregate price to increase 3.2 per cent by the end of 2020.

“The impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy has been swift and violent, with layoffs driving high levels of unemployment across the country,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “While it is sad that these people skewed strongly to young and to part-time workers, for the housing industry, the impact of these presumably temporary job losses will be limited as these groups are much less likely to buy and sell real estate.

“From our experience, with past recessions and real estate downturns, we are not expecting significant year-over-year price changes in 2020,” Soper adds. “Home price declines occur when the market experiences sustained low sales volume while inventory builds. Currently, the inventory of homes for sale in this country is very low, matching low sales volumes as people respect government mandates to stay at home.”

Broad-based measurements of industry activity point to a sharp decline since the provinces declared states of emergency. Home showings are down by more than two-thirds, based on Royal LePage sampling, while open house gatherings at properties for sale have been reduced to almost zero nationwide. ”

As we ease out of strict stay-at-home regimens, sales volumes will return; traditional home sales practices will not,” says Soper. “The popular ‘open house’ gathering of buyers on a spring afternoon is gone, and it won’t be coming back any time soon. The industry is leveraging technologies that allow a home to be shown remotely and social distancing protocols, where we restrict client interaction with our realtors to limited one-on-one or two meetings, will continue for months and months. This process is inherently safer than a trip to the grocery store.”

The aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 4.4 per cent to $655,276 in the first quarter. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $770,005, while bungalows and condominiums rose 2.1 per cent and 4.4 per cent to $541,040 and $493,917, respectively. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions.

“If the fight against the coronavirus requires today’s tight stay-at-home mandates to remain in place for several more months, with no semblance of normal business activity allowed, temporary job losses will become permanent and consumer confidence will be harder to repair,” says Soper. “This would place downward pressure on both home sales volumes and prices.

“Equally, if the collective efforts of Canadians slow the spread of the disease to manageable levels, and if promising science and therapeutic drugs are announced, people will return to their jobs, market confidence will bounce back quickly, and we could see Canada’s real estate markets roar back to life, with 2020 transactions delayed but not eliminated.”

GTA market

In the GTA, housing demand outstripped supply, putting significant upward pressure on home prices. During the first quarter of 2020, the aggregate home price rose 7.5 per cent year-over-year to $866,211.

When broken out by property type, the median price of a condominium saw the highest appreciation, rising 8.8 per cent year-over-year to $580,508, while two-storey homes and bungalows rose 7.7 per cent and 3.7 per cent to $1.01 million and $826,186, respectively.

If business activity resumes by the end of the second quarter, the GTA may see a year-over-year increase of 1.5 per cent to its aggregate home price by the end of 2020, to $861,100. If business activity resumes in late summer 2020, the region could see a decrease of 0.5 per cent year-over-year in aggregate home price to $844,200.


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Industry Report: Building Industry Continues to be Undervalued by Government

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Industry Report: Building Industry Continues to be Undervalued by Government

Despite considerable efforts, we have not succeeded in achieving a full, public understanding of the reasons why housing prices are so high

Writing this — my last column for HOMES Publishing Group — conjures bittersweet feelings for me since I retired from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) on January 1.

What brought me to BILD was the desire to have a positive impact on public policy. I thought this industry should have a voice that is heard by government decision makers. I wanted to elevate the debate that public policy is contributing to the cost of homes in the GTA.

As the president and CEO of BILD, I had the constant support of the members, the board of directors and BILD staff, all who allowed me to tell the industry’s story and do what was right. Their patience allowed me to persevere and to execute my vision, while having fact-based discussions.

I am proud of the progress we have made over the past five years. However, my biggest frustration is how undervalued the industry continues to be perceived by the province of Ontario and many municipalities.

Despite our considerable efforts, we have not succeeded in achieving a full, public understanding of the reasons why housing prices are so high in this region. Housing affordability and the ability to own a home are important components in quality of life, which — along with livelihood — are at risk for our future generations.

The residential and land development industry is one of the most regulated in the country and the prices of homes reflect the policy our industry must follow, and how those policies are implemented. At some point, policy makers will have to say “our policies are creating outcomes that are not in the public interest,” and they will have to listen to the experts that are responsible for building communities. Because what the development and building industry wants to do is to build homes people can afford to purchase — especially first-time buyers.

I have advocated for a streamlined approvals process, shovelready land with proper infrastructure and to update out-of-date zoning bylaws. It is time for all governments to show a true commitment to their promises to make things happen and enact policies that meet the challenges of the rapidly growing population. With that, housing people can afford to purchase may continue to be a reality.

I want to leave this message for young people and new residents who choose to make their homes in this great region: No matter how difficult the situation may seem, continue to maintain the dream of homeownership.

Looking back, what I am most proud of is that BILD has never been more stable from a business perspective with the purchase of the home shows in the GTA. This will enable the organization to be a champion of the industry and have an impact on public policy in Ontario for years to come.

Another important advancement for the building industry occurred on January 1, 2015, when our advocacy efforts were rewarded when the provincial government approved the construction of six-storey wood buildings. It will take time to see the true impact of this policy change, but initial results are very encouraging.

In closing, the best part of my five years has been the amazing people I have met and the wonderful relationships I forged. We really do work in the best industry, in the best city, in the best province and in the best country in the world.

BRYAN TUCKEY is President and CEO of the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) and is a land-use planner who has worked for municipal, regional and provincial governments. He can be found on Twitter (twitter.com/bildgta), Facebook (facebook.com/bildgta), and BILD’s official online blog (bildblogs.ca).

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Price of new detached homes in the GTA approaching $2 million

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Price of new detached homes in the GTA approaching $2 million

In May, the GTA’s new housing market showed few signs of slowing down, especially the condominium segment, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) announced Monday.

Sales of new multi-family homes, condo apartments in highrise and midrise buildings and stacked townhomes continued to be strong and the prices for available units increased substantially, according to Altus Group, BILD’s official source for new-home market intelligence.

Prices of available homes in the lowrise single-family sector were also up but the pace of increase was not as dramatic as in recent months.

“For the new homes market, the province’s fair housing plan has had little real effect,” said BILD president and CEO Bryan Tuckey. “Prices continue to increase and supply, especially for single-family lowrise homes, continues to be low. The price acceleration in the condo portion of the market is especially worrisome since it not only represents the lion’s share of new housing in the GTA, it’s also making it difficult for condos to remain the affordable option.”

About 86 per cent of the 3,902 new homes sold last month were multi-family condo apartments in highrise and midrise buildings and stacked townhomes, while only 14 per cent were lowrise single-family homes.

There were 3,357 sales of new condos in May, slightly fewer than a year ago, but 61 per cent above the 10 year average. The 545 sales of new single-family lowrise homes was a 76 per cent drop from last year and 68 per cent off the 10 year average.

This year is proving to be a very strong year for sales of new homes, with record year-to-date sales. Three out of four of the 22,814 new homes purchased in the GTA so far this year were condo apartments.

The average price of available new condo apartments was up more than $30,000 from April. May’s $604,683 average price marked a 33 per cent increase from a year ago. The average available unit was 814 square feet and the average price per square foot was $743. A year ago, the average price per square foot was $573.

In May, the average price of available new lowrise homes was $1,222,699, an increase of about $10,000 from April and a 40 per cent increase from a year ago.

For the first-time, the average asking price for available new townhomes surpassed the million-dollar mark. Available new detached homes reached that milestone only 14 months ago. In May, the average asking price for available detached homes in the GTA was $1,942,316, while the average price for available semi-detached was $919,231 and for townhomes was $1,002,220.

The supply of new homes, the number of homes available to buyers in builders’ inventories at the end of the month, increased modestly in May but it was still far below a healthy level and it was 8,000 units less than a year ago.

At the end of May, there were 10,820 new homes available to buyers in the GTA, of which 9,406 were condo apartments and 1,414 were lowrise single-family homes. Last month there were 9,387 new homes available to buyers and a year ago there were 19,209 available in builders’ inventories. In May 2006, there were 29,754 new homes in builders’ inventories, of which 16,420 were low-rise single-family homes.

“The combination of lower sales, some increase in inventory and slower price growth in May compared to April was the first hint we have had of some hesitation among potential buyers of single-family homes,” says Patricia Arsenault, Altus Group’s executive vice president of research consulting services. “But in the condominium apartment sector, it was still full steam ahead in May. Sales were steady and prices posted strong increases, meaning the increase in available inventory in May was not due to wavering demand but rather the burst in new condo project openings. Over 4,900 new units were brought to the market, almost twice as many as in the previous month, and many were in projects that launched near month end.”

http://www.bildgta.ca/

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Co-living could be answer to GTA housing crunch

Co-living could be answer to GTA housing crunch

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Co-living could be answer to GTA housing crunch

Toronto Star

The watchwords for the GTA real estate markets in 2017 will be adaptation and innovation, as residents, the building industry and governments alike face the challenges of ceaseless demand, limited supply and record-high house pricing.

Housing affordability has never been a more critical concern.

In 2016, the average house in the GTA made more money than the average household, with detached home prices breaking the $1 million mark and ending last year at $1,016,145 — a mind-boggling 23.1 per cent spike year-over-year, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2017/01/28/co-living-could-be-answer-to-gta-housing-crunch.html


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