Tag Archives: Home Price Index

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Stress test should be reviewed

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Stress test should be reviewed

Greater Toronto Area realtors reported 7,187 residential sales through TREB’s MLS System in March 2019. This result was inline with 7,188 sales reported in March 2018. For the first quarter of 2019, sales were down by one per cent compared to Q1 2018.

While March and Q1 sales remained relatively flat compared to last year, new listings have declined moreso than sales. March new listings were down by 5.1 per cent year-over-year and Q1 new listings were down by 1.5 per cent.

The OSFI stress test continues to impact home buyers’ ability to qualify for a mortgage. TREB is still arguing that the stress test provisions and mortgage lending guidelines generally, including allowable amortization periods for insured mortgages, should be reviewed. The supply of listings in the GTA also remains a problem. Bringing a greater diversity of ownership and rental housing online, including “missing middle” home types, should be a priority of all levels of government.

I asked TREB’s CEO John DiMichele to share his thoughts regarding the City’s Action Plan.

“While the City of Toronto’s recently announced Housing TO – 2020- 2030 Action Plan is exciting and commendable, and we look forward to contributing solutions as a member of the External Advisory Committee, the recently proposed increase to the Municipal Land Transfer Tax on higher priced properties is problematic. As the recent city budget process showed, the MLTT is not a sustainable revenue source from which to fund municipal programs. On top of this, additional MLTT on higher priced homes could have a trickle-down effect on the supply of homes throughout the housing price continuum,” said DiMichele.

As for the MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, it was up by 2.6 per cent year-over-year in March, while the average price for March sales was up by a lesser annual rate of 0.5 per cent to $788,335. The average selling price for Q1 2019 was up by 1.1 per cent yearover- year.

To summarize, market conditions have remained tight enough to support a moderate pace of price growth. Despite sales being markedly lower than the record levels of 2016 and early 2017, the supply of listings has also receded. You can stay up to date on the GTA real estate market by following us on social media, or visit trebhome.com for GTA listings updated in real time.

Garry Bhaura is president of the Toronto Real Estate Board. You can contact him at TREBpres@trebnet.com. For updates on the real estate market, visit trebhome.com. If commercial property is what interests you, contact a TREB realtor by visiting trebcommercial.com.

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Resale Market: Homes sales fall in 2018

Resale home sales fall in 2018

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Resale home sales fall in 2018

Highlights:

  • National home sales fell 2.5 per cent from November to December.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down by 19 per cent from one year ago.
  • The number of newly listed homes was little changed from November to December.
  • The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was up 1.6 per cent year-over-year in December.
  • The national average sale price fell by 4.9 per cent year-over-year in December.

Home sales via Canadian MLS Systems fell by 2.5 per cent in December 2018 compared to November, capping the weakest annual sales since 2012. Monthly declines in activity since September have fully retrenched its summer rally and returned it near the lowest level since early 2013.

Transactions declined in about 60 per cent of all local markets in December, led by lower activity in Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Ottawa, London-St. Thomas and Halifax-Dartmouth, together with a regionally diverse mix of other large and medium sized urban centres.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 19 per cent year-over-year in December 2018 and stood almost 12 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of December. Sales were down from year-ago levels in three-quarters of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the Okanagan Region, Calgary, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington. This decline, in part, is due to elevated activity posted in December 2017 as homebuyers rushed to purchase in advance of the new federal mortgage stress test that came into effect on January 1, 2018.

“What a difference a year makes,” says CREA president Barb Sukkau. “Sales trends were pushed higher in December 2017 by homebuyers rushing to purchase before the new federal mortgage stress test took effect at the beginning of 2018. Since then, the stress test has weighed on sales to varying degrees in all Canadian housing markets and it will continue to do so this year.”

“The Bank of Canada recently said that it expects housing activity will stay ‘soft’ as households ‘adjust to the mortgage stress test and increases in mortgage rates,’ even as jobs and incomes continue growing,” says Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “Indeed, the bank’s economic forecast shows it expects housing will undermine economic growth this year as the mortgage stress test has pushed homeownership affordability out of reach for some home buyers,” he added.

The number of newly listed homes remained little changed (up 0.2 per cent) from November to December, with declines in close to half of all local markets offset by gains in the remainder.

With sales down and new listings steady in December, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 53.3 per cent compared to 54.8 per cent in November. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.5 per cent since the beginning of 2018.

Considering the degree and duration to which market balance readings are above or below their long-term averages is the best way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about two-thirds of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December 2018.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure for the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

There were 5.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2018. While this remains close to its long-term average of 5.3 months, the number of months of inventory has swollen far above its long-term average in Prairie provinces as well as in Newfoundland and Labrador. By contrast, the measure remains well below its long-term average in Ontario and Prince Edward Island. In other provinces, sales and inventory are more balanced.

The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (MLS HPI) was up 1.6 per cent year-over-year in December 2018. The increase is smaller but still broadly in line with year-over-year gains posted since July.

Apartment units posted the largest year-over-year price gains in December (4.9 per cent), followed by townhouse/row units (3.1 per cent). By comparison, two-storey single-family homes posted a small increase (0.4 per cent) while one-storey single-family home prices eased slightly (-0.3 per cent).

Trends continue to vary widely among the 17 housing markets tracked by the MLS HPI. Results were mixed in B.C. Prices are now down on a year-over-year basis in Greater Vancouver (-2.7 per cent) but remain above year-ago levels in the Fraser Valley (+2.5 per cent). Meanwhile, prices posted a year-over-year increase of 6.4 per cent in Victoria and rose 11 per cent elsewhere on Vancouver Island.

Among housing markets tracked by the index in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area, MLS HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in Guelph (6.8 per cent), the Niagara Region (6.8 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (6.4 per cent ), Oakville-Milton (3.3 per cent) and the GTA (3 per cent ). Home prices in Barrie and District remain slightly below year-ago levels (-1.1 per cent).

Across the Prairies, where supply is historically elevated relative to sales, benchmark home prices remained below year-ago levels in Calgary (-3.2 per cent), Edmonton (-2 per cent), Regina (-5.2 per cent) and Saskatoon (-1.2 per cent). The home pricing environment is likely to remain weak in these housing markets until elevated supply is reduced and becomes more balanced in relation to demand.

Home prices rose 6.9 per cent year-over-year in Ottawa (led by an 8.3-per-cent increase in townhouse/row unit prices), 6 per cent in Greater Montreal (led by a 9.1-per-cent increase in townhouse/row unit prices) and 2.5 per cent in Greater Moncton (led by a 12.2-per-cent increase in townhouse/row unit prices).

The MLS HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends because average price trends are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2018 was just over $472,000, down 4.9 per cent from the same month in 2017. The year-over-year decline reflects how the jump in sales in December 2017 in advance of the stress test was more pronounced in more expensive markets. The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in Greater Vancouver and the GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts almost $100,000 from the national average price, trimming it to just under $375,000.

For more information, visit crea.ca/housing-market-stats/


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