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Ontario markets lead Canada in Q2 price growth

Ontario markets lead Canada in Q2 price growth – Royal LePage

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Ontario markets lead Canada in Q2 price growth – Royal LePage

Once again proving their strength and resilience – even in the face of an ongoing pandemic – Ontario housing markets led Canada in price growth in the second quarter of 2020.

According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 6.8 per cent year-over-year to $673,072 in the second quarter. Once provinces allowed regular real estate activity to resume, demand surged in many markets. Inventory levels, already constrained pre-pandemic, have failed to keep pace.

“Home prices shot up in the second quarter as a crush of buyers entered the market, attracted by extremely low interest rates and the perception of bargains to-be-had,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Across Ontario and Quebec, in particular, the demand for housing outpaced the growth in supply, especially in the early weeks post-lockdown. The surge in the number of first-time buyers was felt acutely, as these housing consumers soaked up supply without contributing to it.

Stable prices

“We are now seeing sellers return to the market in key supply-constrained regions in numbers sufficient to meet demand,” Soper adds. “Homebuyers should enjoy more reasonable conditions with stable prices and improved selection in the second half of the year.”

When broken out by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home in Canada rose 8.0 per cent year-over-year to $794,392, while the median price of a bungalow increased 3.9 per cent to $550,289. The median price of a condominium increased 5.3 per cent year-over-year to $503,983. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions.

“COVID-19 shaped the real estate market during the second quarter in every possible way,” says Soper. “As consumers and realtors complied with April’s shelter-at-home directives and only urgent housing needs were serviced, sales volumes plummeted to one-third of normal in our largest cities. As the reality of extended and potentially permanent work-from-home employment sunk in, people pondered both the location and size of their homes. Simply put, larger homes in smaller communities have become more fashionable. As competition for these properties heats up, bidding wars are more common in what were our quieter cities and towns.”

Greater Toronto Area

Pent-up demand coupled with a lack of supply in the GTA resulted in significant price appreciation in the second quarter, with the aggregate median price increasing 10 per cent year-over-year to $899,001. When broken down by housing type, the median price of a standard two-storey home increased 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $1.05 million; bungalows rose 6.4 per cent to $852,260; and condominiums increased 9.3 per cent to $599,235.

“Prior to the market disruption caused by the pandemic, the GTA was on track for doubledigit price growth in 2020,” says Kevin Somers, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “While the first half of the second quarter saw market activity severely curtailed, as soon as the market woke up in late May, sales quickly accelerated. However, with listings not keeping pace and buyer competition high, we are again seeing double-digit price appreciation in the region.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in the GTA will increase four per cent to $882,000 in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same quarter last year.

“While buyer demand outstripping inventory has been typical of the Toronto market, the return of buyers before sellers in the second half of the quarter amplified price growth, says Somers. “Sellers are now returning, and while buyers should not expect bargains, they may find the second half of the year more reasonable for inventory and price appreciation.”

RELATED READING

Toronto and Canada to lead global markets in post-COVID-19 real estate recovery – ReMax

Toronto still one of the fastest growing cities in North America – even with the impact of COVID-19

Canadian, GTA markets to show resilience through COVID-19: Royal LePage

 


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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

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GTA home price growth to hit 10 per cent this year: TRREB

A strong economy and rising population will combine to cause a surge in home price growth and sales in 2020, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Year in Review and Outlook Report. This may be good news for those who already own a home, but it represents additional challenges for prospective homebuyers.

“Robust regional economic conditions, strong population growth and low borrowing costs will support increased home sales in 2020,” says TRREB President Michael Collins. “Market conditions will become tighter, as transactions will continue to outpace the growth in available listings. The resulting increase in competition between buyers will likely result in an acceleration in price growth across all major market segments.”

TRREB is forecasting at least 10-per-cent price growth this year to $900,000, up from $819,319 in 2019, as well as a 10.5-per-cent jump in sales to 97,000, from 87,825 in 2019.

This forecast rate of growth presupposes that price growth will continue to be driven by the less expensive mid-density, lowrise home types and condominium apartments. If the pace of detached home price growth begins to catch up to that of other major home types, the average selling price for all home types combined could push well past the $900,000 mark over the next year.

“The fact that tens of thousands of new households form each year in the GTA is testament to our region’s competitiveness on the global stage,” says John DiMichele, TRREB CEO. “We attract some of the best talent available into and across a diversity of economic sectors. However, in order to remain competitive, policy makers need to continue their focus on the constrained GTA housing supply and to ensure we have an integrated and efficient transit and transportation network that will effectively allow the movement of people and goods.”

“It’s a situation that’s been unfolding over the last decade,” Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels, told HOMES Publishing. “A lot of these people are looking to purchase a home to find a place to live, yet we’ve seen a flatline in terms of both home completions, and that feeds into a flatline, even a downward trend in some cases in terms of listings.”

Jason Mercer, TRREB’s chief market analyst and director of service channels

Persistent shortage

While the GTA did see an improvement in condominium apartment rental supply in 2019, recent consumer polling, coupled with the potential for smaller returns on investment from rental income, suggests there are still forces working against more balanced market conditions in the GTA rental market, TRREB says. Policymakers at all levels of government need to be mindful of rental supply requirements as the GTA population continues to grow on the back of a strong regional economy and strong immigration. The organization expects above-inflation annual growth rates in average one- and two-bedroom condominium rents to be sustained in 2020.

“After more than three years of slower market activity brought on largely by changes in housing-related policies at the provincial and federal levels, home sales will move closer to demographic potential in 2020,” says Mercer. “The key issue, however, will be the persistent shortage of listings. Without relief on the housing supply front, the pace of price growth will continue to ramp up. Policy makers need to understand that demand side initiatives on their own will only have a temporary impact on the market.”

TRREB’s report this year focuses on planning for growth in the Greater Toronto Area and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe, with the subtitle “The Time is Now.” Contributions from several organizations all point to the same conclusion: Immediate government support to address housing supply and infrastructure – otherwise, home prices will continue to rise to prohibitive levels.

“Everyone realizes, if you’re thinking about our region both in terms of housing people and also remaining competitive, because if you’re attracting business, people will want a ready supply of housing, and that’s something that’s been quite constrained,” says Mercer. “So, moving forward, we need all levels of government to focus on bringing on more supply, but also great diversity of supply.”

Hon. Steve Clark

Affordability challenges

“Toronto’s booming economy has brought with it housing affordability challenges that will continue throughout the next decade,” says Frank Clayton, senior research fellow, Ryerson University’s Centre for Urban Research & Land Development. “Both the provincial and municipal governments must support a massive increase in the supply of all types of housing and tenures as priority number one and quickly transform the land use planning system to make this happen.”

The Centre for Urban Research & Land Development conducted a study that examined the economy and housing market up to 2031, which shows continuing deterioration of affordability.

“We expect a lot of employment growth, more higher paying jobs in the Toronto region… it’s going to be a good time over the next 10 years for employment and income growth. But, unfortunately, incomes on average will not rise as fast as housing prices or rents, so affordability will continue to be a very serious problem, in fact, get worse.”

Adds Paul Smetanin, president and CEO, Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis: “To accommodate the 480,000 new daily commuters that are expected to join the system between now and 2041, transportation infrastructure capacity will have to increase significantly, and especially for public transit. To get there without making congestion worse, it’s going to be very important to evaluate each new investment in transportation infrastructure on the basis of its productivity to make sure pressure is relieved in the right places.”

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ReMax Housing Market Outlook Report

Ontario markets expected to continue to lead home price growth in 2020

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Ontario markets expected to continue to lead home price growth in 2020

ReMax Housing Market Outlook Report

Housing markets in Southern Ontario will lead in home price growth this year, and are expected to continue to do so in 2020, according to a new report from ReMax.

ReMax is expecting a leveling out of the highs and lows that characterized the Canadian market in 2019, particularly in Vancouver and Toronto, as we move into 2020. Healthy price increases are expected next year, with the ReMax 2020 Housing Market Outlook Report estimating a 3.7 per-cent increase in the average residential sales price.

Some regions in Ontario continue to experience higher-than-normal year-over-year gains from 2018 to 2019, including London (10.7 per cent), Windsor (11 per cent), Ottawa (11.7 per cent) and Niagara (12.9 per cent).

“Southern Ontario is witnessing some incredibly strong price appreciation, with many regions still seeing double-digit gains,” says Christopher Alexander, Executive Vice-President and Regional Director, ReMax of Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Thanks to the region’s resilient economy, staggering population growth and relentless development, the 2020 market looks very optimistic.”

As more Canadians have adjusted to the mortgage stress test and older Millennials move into their peak earning years, it is anticipated that they will drive the market in 2020, particularly single Millennials and young couples. A recent Leger survey conducted by ReMax found that more than half (51 per cent) of Canadians are considering buying a property in the next five years, especially those under the age of 45.

Ontario leading the way

Toronto is set to experience a strong housing market in 2020. Lower unemployment rates, economic growth and improved overall affordability in the GTA are expected to drive the market forward. ReMax is forecasting average sale price growth for 2020 of six per cent, two points higher than the increase from 2018 ($835,422) and 2019 ($880,841 ). While Toronto is experiencing a busy construction season this year, housing supply still falls short of the demands of the city’s rapidly growing population.

ReMax Housing Outlook Report

 

Cities such as Ottawa and Windsor are seller’s markets, showing substantial increases in average residential sale price at 11.7 and 11 per cent, respectively. This strong growth is expected to continue into 2020, with Ottawa’s new LRT system impacting surrounding development and Windsor’s continued affordability attracting young professionals to the area. Buyers are also not burdened by the mortgage stress test, as they were in 2018, ReMax says.

The Niagara region is also showing strong growth, with average residential sale price increasing almost 13 per cent, from $378,517 in 2018 to $427,487 in 2019. Value-conscious consumers from the GTA are buying in droves, with many choosing to live in the region and commute to Toronto.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS CANADA:

BC

Consumer confidence in regions such as Vancouver West in early 2019 was extremely low and remained relatively shaky throughout the year, resulting in an average residential sale price drop of 7.5 per cent, from $2.27 million in 2018 to $2.10 in 2019. However, consumers have acclimatized to the mortgage stress test, and confidence has begun to return and will prevail in 2020, with prices expected to rise four per cent.

ReMax Housing Outlook Report

Fraser Valley also experienced a price drop of almost four per cent year-over-year, from $724,740 to $696,502. However, the region is also expected to witness substantial growth, particularly in downtown Surrey, due to the high number of real estate developments catering to businesses and educational institutions. First-time buyers are expected to drive the market in 2020 due to the relative affordability of the region compared to Vancouver proper.

“The drop in sales in some key British Columbia markets represents the last of the ‘down’ market spillover from 2018,” says Elton Ash, regional executive vice-president, ReMax of Western Canada.

“Consumer confidence is poised for a comeback, leading to more healthy and sustainable growth, as more buyers come to terms with the stress test and interest rates are unlikely to increase in any meaningful way in 2020.”

Prairies

ReMax Housing Outlook Report

Alberta continues to experience slowing economic conditions, leading to a decrease in average residential sale prices in Calgary, from $478,088 in 2018 to $460,532 in 2019. Condos are the easiest way for first-time homebuyers to get into the market, with starter units going for as low as $150,000. While the city’s unemployment rate continues to remain high compared to the rest of Canada, the population is increasing, with more people moving to the city from other parts of the province.

Winnipeg, on the other hand, has shown a small increase in average residential sale price, both for freehold and condominium properties, by 1.5 and 0.8 per cent, respectively. Immigration to the city, in combination with reasonable prices and ample supply, is expected to drive sales going into 2020.

Atlantic Canada

ReMax Housing Outlook Report

Halifax, NS and Saint John, NB have experienced solid price appreciation of six and five per cent, respectively. Affordability continues to attract many buyers in the region, most of whom are buying single-detached homes. At the same time, the region’s condominium market is being driven by retirees. Conversely, the market in St. John’s, Nfld. is expected to recover in 2020, with increased consumer confidence expected to bring about stabilization. However, the city’s aging population and high rate of outbound migration is expected to have an impact on housing market activity at some point.

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Outlook 2020 – what’s in store for GTA housing next year?

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Hamilton

First-time homebuyers may catch a break in certain Ontario markets

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First-time homebuyers may catch a break in certain Ontario markets

Hamilton

Attention would-be homebuyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe: Recent home price trends indicate the recovery is on, but there are still some opportunities for first-time buyers in certain areas.

According to the latest Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast, year-over-year home prices made modest gains in many regions across Canada in the third quarter of 2018. The national trend was largely influenced by price appreciation in Greater Vancouver, while property in the Greater Toronto Area experienced continued year-over-year price declines, with modest gains in value when compared to the previous quarter.

The Royal LePage National House Price Composite shows that the price of a home in Canada increased 2.2 per cent year-over-year to $625,499 in the third quarter of 2018. When broken out by housing type, the median price of a two-storey home rose 1.4 per cent year-over-year to $736,337, while the median price of a bungalow climbed 1.5 per cent to $519,886. Condominiums continued to see the highest rate of appreciation nationally when compared to the detached segment, rising 6.7 per cent year-over-year to $441,240.

Looking ahead, Royal LePage projects a further uptick in home price appreciation in the fourth quarter, forecasting a 1.5-per-cent increase in the aggregate price of a home in Canada over the next three months.

ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS

“Positive economic fundamentals, supported by a new agreement on trade, should bolster consumer confidence across Canada and stoke demand in the nation’s real estate market,” says Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Dangerously overheated regions have cooled considerably this year, while home prices have remained remarkably resilient. This is the soft landing that policy makers were hoping for.”

“I am concerned that the slower market will cause housing supply issues to be shuffled aside for other priorities,” Soper adds. “The return of runaway home prices in the country’s largest markets remains a real threat. Not this year, but in the near future. Job growth is strong, Canada is attracting more of the best and brightest from around the world and the large millennial cohort is putting increasing pressure on our limited new housing stock. It is imperative that all levels of government address looming supply shortages, particularly in affordable housing.”

After a number of years where Canada’s major real estate markets were tilted decidedly in favour of home sellers, 2018 has provided relief for many purchasers, particularly first-time buyers. “The desire to own a home remains strong with younger families,” says Soper. “Single-digit price appreciation makes pursuing the dream of home ownership a realistic proposition for many.”

FIRST-TIME OPPORTUNITIES

During the third quarter, Ontario continued to see noticeable differences between appreciation rates in the GTA and surrounding Golden Horseshoe cities and beyond. Despite some price relief in the GTA, buyers – particularly young families – from the region are venturing out to other Southern Ontario cities in search of more affordable homes, where price points are still significantly lower.

In contrast, over the same period, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA remained relatively flat year-over-year, depreciating 0.4 per cent to $836,402. The City of Toronto maintained solid ground, increasing by a healthy 5.2 per cent, while nearly every suburban region studied, except for Mississauga, posted year-over-year price declines. However, quarter-over-quarter, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA rose 1.3 per cent. By the end of the fourth quarter, Royal LePage expects the aggregate price of a home in the GTA to rise to $853,097, a further 2.0 per cent over the third quarter of 2018.

“The GTA is emerging from a housing correction that was triggered by a combination of eroding affordability and government intervention,” says Soper. “The introduction of the mortgage stress test in particular slowed activity in Toronto’s ‘905,’ bringing lower prices to the over-heated suburban region. Quarter-over-quarter trends are pointing to the end of this correctional cycle and the beginning of a modest recovery in the region.”

HOTTEST 5 GGH MARKETS BY PROPERTY TYPE

Median price growth, year-over-year, third quarter 2017-18, Royal LePage

DETACHED TWO-STOREY

Niagara-St. Catharines
9.4%
$434,946

Kitchener-Waterloo Cambridge
6.5%
$541,134

Guelph
6.2%
$589,682

Hamilton
5.1%
$606,671

Toronto
4.7%
$1.268M

 

DETACHED BUNGALOW

Niagara-St. Catharines
7.2%
$394,337

Hamilton
5.1%
$509,384

Guelph
4.9%
$501,329

Kitchener-Waterloo Cambridge
3.5%
$458,370

Vaughan
2.3%
$1.279M

 

CONDOMINIUM

Toronto
9.3%
$561,733

Mississauga
9.1%
$415,733

Hamilton
8.9%
$344,422

Kitchener-Waterloo Cambridge
7.8%
$302,184

Scarborough
6.8%
$387,149

 

RELATED READING

5 affordable neighbourhoods for detached homes in 416 and 905

GTA housing market correction coming to an end, ReMax says

6 Ontario municipal elections to watch regarding housing

 

 

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