Tag Archives: CMHC

Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

November 6, 2018Active Life, Condo Life, Featured, Homes Magazine, Reno & DecorAtlantic, average prices, BC, Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CMHC, CMHC, Forecast, GTA, housing market, Housing Market Outlook, Housing Starts, MLS, Outlook, Prairies, Quebec, Toronto, Wayne KarlWayne Karl

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Canadian housing market to moderate in 2019 but growth to continue in Ontario and Toronto

By Wayne Karl

Canada’s housing market should see a moderation in both housing starts and sales, while home prices are expected to reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and population growth. This forecast for 2019 and 2020 is drawn from the 2018 Housing Market Outlook from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Nationally, CMHC’s outlook for 2019 projects total housing starts to edge down and range between 193,700 to 204,500, with the downward trend expected for both single and multi-unit starts. MLS sales are expected to be between 478,400 and 497,400 units annually while MLS prices should lie between $501,400 and $521,600.

“Our key takeaway from this year’s outlook is moderation in Canada’s housing markets for 2019 into 2020,” says Bob Dugan, chief economist, CMHC. “Housing starts are expected to decline from the higher levels we’ve seen recently. We expect resales in 2019 and 2020 to remain below recent peaks while prices should reach levels that are more in line with economic fundamentals such as income, job and populations growth.”

Ontario recovery

After dampened market activity in 2018, existing home sales and housing starts in Ontario, particularly in single-family homes, will post a partial recovery in 2019. Buyers are expected to re-enter the market on the strength of stronger than expected job growth and in-migration, before the downward trend in starts and sales resumes in 2020.

GTA growth

With balanced conditions prevailing in the GTA, CMHC expects moderate sales growth and home prices growing in line with inflation. The rising costs of homeownership will result in strong rental demand, while new supply will add some upward pressure on vacancy rates. Toronto buyers should see more housing choices as builders concentrate their efforts on new highrise projects.

OTHER REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Housing starts activity and MLS sales in BC should moderate, as economic and population growth slows while MLS average prices are expected to see a flatter growth profile through 2020.

Vancouver
Over the next two years, Metro Vancouver’s resale market will see lower sales, higher inventories of homes for sale and lower home prices compared with recent market highs. Through 2018, demand and home prices softened across all market segments and local geographies.

PRAIRIES
Buyers’ market conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan should gradually shift to a balanced market with gradual improvement in economic and demographic fundamentals. Balanced market conditions in Manitoba are expected to continue.

Calgary
Various factors will push and pull the demand for housing in Calgary in 2019 and 2020. Calgary’s economy will experience stronger growth in population and employment. This will help support demand and lift sales in 2019 and 2020. However, the average MLS price will continue to face downward pressure but is expected to stabilize in 2019 and modestly rise in 2020.

QUEBEC
Housing starts and sales of existing homes will both be sustained, however, slower economic growth and rising borrowing costs will moderate activity through 2020. Starts will continue to be dominated by the apartment market segment, while demand for resale single-detached homes will remain relatively strong.

Montreal
In 2018 and 2019, rental housing demand will increase slightly faster than supply in Montreal, which will put some downward pressure on the vacancy rate. Demand will be supported by rising net migration over the forecast horizon.

ATLANTIC CANADA
The Atlantic region will see sustained activity, notably in Nova Scotia, where existing home sales and average prices should trend higher while rental demand will drive growth in apartment construction.

Interest rate hikes may not cost you as much as you think

October 30, 2018Active Life, Condo Life, Featured, Homes Magazine, Reno & DecorBank of Canada, BMO, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation CMHC, Canwise Financial, CIBC, CMHC, fixed rates, homebuyers, interest rates, mortgage holders, Mortgage rates, RateHub, RBC, Scotiabank, TD Canada Trust, variable rates, Wayne KarlWayne Karl

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Interest rate hikes may not cost you as much as you think

By Wayne Karl

When the Bank of Canada announced an interest rate hike on Oct. 24 – and within hours all of Canada’s major banks followed suit in hiking their prime lending rates – consumers largely groaned.

All of CIBC, TD Canada Trust, Scotiabank, RBC Royal Bank and BMO Bank of Montreal almost immediately issued virtually the same statement, word for word: “(Insert bank name here) announced that it has increased its prime lending rate by 25 basis points from 3.70 per cent to 3.95 per cent, effective Oct. 25, 2018.”

Yes, the numbers, too, are identical.

BoC had already raised its influential overnight rate target three times since July 2017, to 1.5 per cent from 0.75 per cent, and now this most recent hike to 1.75 per cent, while hinting that further increases are likely.

For mortgage holders, though, the increases may not cost you as much as you fear.

Fixed rates

The majority of Canadian mortgage holders are on fixed-rate products, which is why a more moderate pace of rate increases likely won’t impact the market significantly, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Nearly half of existing mortgages in Canada will come up for renewal in 2018, according to a data release from CIBC Capital Markets. However, despite having to renew their mortgage in a rising interest rate environment, a borrower with a five-year mortgage rate may be able to get a better deal on their mortgage renewal today than when they entered the housing market five years ago.

According to calculations from mortgage rate comparison website Ratehub.ca:

The best five-year fixed rate in September 2013 was 3.29 per cent. With that rate, a borrower with a $400,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years would have had a monthly mortgage payment of $1,953 over the last five years.

If that same borrower renewed their mortgage at today’s best five-year fixed rate of 3.19 per cent, their monthly mortgage payment would decrease by $17 per month to $1,936.

“Canadians who require a new mortgage in coming months should lock in a fixed rate as soon as possible,” says James Laird, co-founder of Ratehub Inc. and president of CanWise Financial. “This includes those who are purchasing a home, and homeowners whose mortgage is coming up for renewal.

“Remember that, on average, mortgage providers will offer their existing customers a discount of 0.25 per cent off their posted rate on a renewal. However, there may be more competitive rates out there. Be sure to shop around online or use a mortgage broker to negotiate the best rate for your renewal.”

Laird says borrowers should begin shopping around 120 days in advance of their renewal date in order to negotiate a competitive mortgage rate.

A rising interest rate environment could put downward pressure on home prices, he says, but upward pressure will come from predicted economic growth, lack of housing supply, immigration and first-time homebuyers.

Variable rates

“Borrowers should expect variable rates to perfectly correlate with Bank of Canada rate increases,” Laird says. “Variable rate mortgage holders should also be prepared for several increases to their interest rate in coming months and, with general interest rates in Canada on the rise, fixed rates will rise as well. However, those currently in fixed rates have nothing to worry about until their next mortgage renewal date.”

Toronto and Hamilton highlight evidence of overvaluation, CMHC says

October 25, 2018Condo Life, Homes Magazine, Industry NewsCanada, CMHC, Hamilton, HMA, housing market, Housing Market Assessment, overheating, overvaluation, TorontoWayne Karl

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Toronto and Hamilton highlight evidence of overvaluation, CMHC says

One day after the Bank of Canada raised its overnight lending rate – and hinted at further increases in the near term – the Canadian housing market got another sobering reminder this week: the latest Housing Market Assessment (HMA) from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

CMHA warns that Canada’s overall housing market remains highly vulnerable, though conditions of overvaluation are easing as a whole.

The quarterly report acts as an “early warning system” for the country’s housing markets – an important tool supporting financial and housing market stability.

In Ontario, Toronto and Hamilton home prices are moving closer to levels supported by housing market fundamentals such as income, mortgage rates and population. Still, these markets continue to exhibit a high degree of overall vulnerability.

Toronto continues to show moderate evidence of overheating and price acceleration, and strong evidence of overvaluation, CMHC says. On the plus side, there is weak evidence of overbuilding, as the number of completed and unsold units is at a historic low.

Hamilton CMHC — Source: CMHC Housing Market Assessment

In Hamilton, moderate evidence of overheating exists, due to a high sales-to-new listings ratio in eight of the last 12 quarters. Price growth has persisted over the last 12 quarters, contributing to moderate evidence of price acceleration. Overvaluation in Hamilton has decreased on average, but moderate evidence remains since house prices are considerably higher than levels supported by economic fundamentals, CMHC says.

OTHER MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Evidence of overbuilding remains high in Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon and Regina, so those markets continue to receive a moderate degree of vulnerability in the overall assessment.
A low degree of overall vulnerability is sustained for Ottawa, Quebec City, Moncton, Halifax and St. John’s where house prices continue to follow the path of fundamentals.
Montreal’s resale market is close to overheating, creating significant upward pressure on prices as a result of a sharp tightening between supply and demand.
In Winnipeg, evidence of overbuilding as well as the degree of overall vulnerability changed from low to moderate, reflecting increases in the inventory of newly completed but unsold units.

7 factors that will affect GTA housing in 2019 – and 5 reasons to consider buying NOW

October 25, 2018Condo Life, Featured, Homes Magazineaffordability, Bank of Canada, CMHC, Condo demand, condos, Dana Senagama, GTA, housing demand, housing supply, Mortgage rates, OREA, Outlook 2019, overvaluation, Rental market, vacancy rates, Wayne KarlWayne Karl

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7 factors that will affect GTA housing in 2019 – and 5 reasons to consider buying NOW

By Wayne Karl

GTA homebuyers, we have some good news and some bad news.

First, the good news: You live in one of the most desirable areas and housing markets in Canada – maybe even the world.

The bad news? That affordability challenge we’re all facing.

“The affordability issue is not going away,” PricewaterhouseCoopers says plainly, in its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2019 report.

Why? See point number one.

“Potential homebuyers will need to alter their expectations and possibly delay entry into homeownership,” Dana Senagama, manager, market analysis for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), told Homes Publishing.

Not exactly the most hopeful outlook for those – especially first-timers – looking to buy a home in and around the GTA.

But it’s not all bad. Let’s look at what’s going on in the market, and what would-be buyers can do to help their cause.

1 Return to price growth

Following the introduction of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan in April 2017, recent interest rate hikes and other changes, sales and prices in the GTA have seen some moderation.

But the slowing will be short-lived, Senagama says. Key economic fundamentals such as population and employment growth will continue to drive housing market demand, but the supply of new homes is not being addressed. The result? A return to price growth.

“CMHC is working on data gaps like supply with many industry stakeholders and partners,” she says. “Currently, we are participating in a working group with the province of Ontario to find solutions and best practices.”

PwC says the region is feeling the effects of demographic shifts. Millennials have begun to compete with Baby Boomers for real estate, and over the next decade, almost 700,000 first-time buyers will target the GTA or Hamilton markets, according to a May 2018 report from the Ontario Real Estate Association.

2 Risk of overvaluation

Senagama cautions, however, that the Toronto market is still showing signs of overvaluation.

“This happens when house price growth is surpassing the population and income growth. So, despite some of the moderation you’re seeing, we’re still calling for a high degree of vulnerability in Toronto in the foreseeable future.”

3 Inelastic supply

The GTA housing market is characterized by inelastic supply. “Supply is slow to respond to any change in price, and we’re seeing that time and time again,” she says.

Recent research from CMHC and Altus Group, in fact, shows that of the lowrise new home projects that were started in 2016 and 2017, it took 15 years for those developments to go from the initial land purchase to product hitting the market.

“We have a problem, in terms of supply.”

With very limited new home supply hitting the market, once buyers get used to temporary shocks to the system brought on by policy issues and rising interest rates, they return to buying homes, which in turn drives up prices.

4 Condo demand

With lowrise home prices enjoying spectacular growth in recent years, there was a compositional shift in demand toward less expensive product – namely condos – particular among first-time buyers.

But now, with price growth even in this category – with average condo prices rising 8.4 per cent year-over-year to $552,269 in the third quarter this year – and pre-construction units in the $700,000 range…

“These are not price points for first-time buyers,” Senagama says, “so we’re still looking at very high prices across the GTA.”

5 Mortgage rates

The Bank of Canada has already raised its influential overnight rate target three times since July 2017, to 1.5 per cent from 0.75 per cent. Experts expect at least one more increase this year, possibly as early as the next rate announcement on Oct. 24.

A more moderate pace of rate increases could impact the market, but not significantly since the majority of mortgage holders are on fixed-rate mortgages, CMHC research shows.

6 Rental market

Any discussion about affordability needs to include the rental market, Senagama says. “Much like the ownership segment, supply is a huge constraint in the Toronto rental market.”

With the average vacancy rate in the GTA 1.1 per cent, and 0.7 per cent for condo rentals, rental rate increases are picking up steam. “Because we have a supply problem. And because we don’t have enough supply of the purpose-built rental units, the gap has been filled in by the condo market.”

About 33 per cent of all condos in Toronto are being rented out by investors, according to CMHC. This results in renters paying a much higher premium to rent a condo versus a purpose-built apartment – on average 50 per cent more, for a two-bedroom unit.

“We talk about affordability, and this raises so many other concerns, especially in a market that is supply-strapped,” Senagama says.

7 Catch 22

investors are buying into the condo market to rent out their units, taking advantage of the tight rental market. But first-time buyers – who typically aren’t equity-rich or wealthy – have to compete for available condo product, which again drives up prices.

5 REASONS TO BUY A HOME NOW (OR AS SOON AS YOU CAN)

1 Affordability

More supply of new homes is a big part of the solution. But despite ongoing lobbying from the housing industry, and apparent increasing awareness of new elected municipal leaders, this problem won’t be solved overnight. It will take time. Lots of it. In the meantime, as PricewaterhouseCoopers says: The affordability issue is not going away. It might even get worse before it gets better.

2 Market moderation waning

With little relief on the supply side expected, price growth will continue to be strong, even if somewhat muted compared to the double-digit increases seen over the last few years. In short, the longer buyers wait, the more it could cost you.

3 Interest rates

Experts expect at least one more increase this year, possibly as early as the next rate announcement on Oct. 24. To protect yourself against a more moderate pace of rate increases, consider a fixed-rate mortgage product.

4 Pent-up demand

Buyers believe prices are going to increase, but not to the same degree we’ve seen in recent years. This will lead to pent-up demand, which when released over the next year, will contribute to increasing buying activity and rising prices. So, if you’re able to buy before then, you could beat the rush.

5 Rental market

If you’re a Millennial planning to move out of home and into the rental market, consider this: Toronto is the most expensive Canadian rental market, with average rates for one-bedroom units at slightly more than $1,900 per month (up 2.8 per cent from August to September); $2,374 for two-bedrooms (up 7.1 per cent). Try saving up for a down payment at those rates; maybe staying at home a little longer isn’t so bad after all.

Wayne Karl is Senior Digital Editor at Homes Publishing. wayne.karl@homesmag.com

Home prices and affordability still a concern – CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey

October 18, 2018Condo Life, Homes Magazine, Industry Newsaffordability, CMHC, home prices, homebuyers, homebuying, Morgage, Mortgage Consumer Survey, MortgagesWayne Karl

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Home prices and affordability still a concern – CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey

Rising home prices and affordability continue to weigh on prospective homebuyers, according to Canada Mortgage Housing Corp., in its 2018 Mortgage Consumer Survey.

Indeed, for first-time buyers, price and affordability are the most important factors they consider when buying a home – more than type of neighbourhood, proximity to work and overall condition of the home.

While decreasing steadily for four consecutive surveys, more than one-third (37 per cent) of homebuyers continue to feel concern or uncertainty when buying a home. “Concerns related to affordability top the list with more than 50 per cent of concerned buyers worrying about paying too much for their home while nearly one-third worry about rising interest rates and mortgage qualification,” the survey says.

Other survey highlights include:

Eighty-five per cent of first-time buyers spent the most they could afford on their home purchase. However, a majority (76 per cent) are confident that they will be able to meet their future mortgage payment obligations.
Sixty per cent of first-time buyers and 69 per cent of repeat buyers indicated that, if they were to run into some financial trouble, they would have sufficient assets (such as investments and other property) to supplement their needs.
About 50 per cent of homebuyers agreed they would feel comfortable using more technology to arrange their next mortgage transaction. However, the majority agree it is important to meet face-to-face with their mortgage professional when negotiating and finalizing their mortgage.
Slightly more than half (52 per cent) of homebuyers were aware of the latest mortgage qualification rules. About one in five first-time buyers indicated the rules impacted their purchase decision with most opting to decrease non-essential expenses, purchase a less expensive home or use savings to increase their down payment.
Consumers continue to show confidence in their homebuying and mortgage decisions, with 80 per cent believing that homeownership remains a good long-term financial investment and 66 per cent believing the value of their home will increase in the next 12 months.
More than one in five (22 per cent) first-time buyers were newcomers to Canada and almost 50 per cent were millennials (aged of 25 to 34), down from 60 per cent in 2017.

THE ANALYST : Premier Ford: Seven steps to housing affordability

September 17, 2018Homes Magazine, Industry NewsAndrew Brethour, BILD, Builder Bites, Canvas Condominium, CMHC, GTA, Ontario, PMA Realty, Pricing PressureDave Gray

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THE ANALYST : Premier Ford: Seven steps to housing affordability

By Andrew Brethour
PMA Realty

It’s early in the mandate, but here are seven steps to relieving the price pressure and improving housing affordability in the GTA that Ontario Premier Doug Ford should consider. None of these ideas are quick fixes and each will require careful examination and implementation over several years. It took us 15 years to get into the untenable position we find ourselves in today and it will take a while to turn the “affordable ship” around.

STEP ONE

Supply, Supply, Supply

The last year of the housing supply study coordinated by our firm, PMA Realty, in consultation with CMHC, the Ministry of Housing and BILD was in 2003. The study was completed annually from 1997 and created a databank of net residual residential land supply covering 37 municipalities in the GTA. The total number of lots (low density) and units (high density) were identified as in process, at draft stage and in registered plans of subdivision. All zoned land was included but not yet identified.

Provincial policy at the time was to maintain a three-year supply in these three noted categories. Today, 15 years later, we have a three-month supply. The province introduced the growth plan in 2004 but never did an economic impact statement. In 2004, a serviced 40-foot lot sold for $2,500 per front foot, or $100,000. Today, that same lot — if you can find one — sells for $20,000 per front foot, or $800,000. This reckless and irresponsible escalation in the underlying price of land was driven mostly by provincial policy, not consumer demand.

Mr. Premier, step one is to re-institute the annual land supply analysis and clearly determine the current and projected supply of lots and units in the now Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. By 2030, only 12 years from now, population growth is projected to move from six million to nearly nine million people. Without a barometer of supply, growth will stagnate and go elsewhere.

STEP TWO

Approval Process

The approval process takes too long and is too costly, further affecting affordability. Mr. Premier, review, streamline and deregulate the approval process. The GTA must compete on a North American, even global, basis for new employment opportunities. Many southern U.S. cities where growth is comparable to the GTA take a matter of months from land purchase to approval for construction. In the GTHA, it is an average of more than 10 years. Provincial policy should be set at a maximum of three years.

Mr. Premier, that is your challenge.

STEP THREE

Rent Controls

Mr. Premier, much has been written, studied, reviewed and “controlled” in rental housing, yet these controls have not produced more rental stock but, in fact, less. And the existing stock is crumbling.

Yet the divide between the “protected consumer” and the purpose-built rental developer is not that far apart. Rent controls were reset last year in the fair housing plan at an annual increase limit of 2 per cent. Rental buildings are financed over a 20 to 30 year project life period. An extra 1.5 per cent in annual rental increase would make the difference between thousands of projects being cancelled and thousands being built.

Mr. Premier, allow annual rent increases to rise to 3.5 per cent and you will be amazed at the amount of rental activity that will produce.

STEP FOUR

Hidden Taxes

The tax component of a new home was recently outlined in an excellent C.D. Howe Institute study — over $100,000 per unit in Ontario and over $150,000 per unit in the GTA. If we truly want greater affordability, it can be delivered with lower taxes and greater supply. As sales volumes have declined drastically in the last two years, the municipalities’ response to declining revenue is to increase the development charge. A Catch 22 when it comes to affordability.

Mr. Premier, examine municipalities’ ability to finance infrastructure with an underlying purpose to reducing taxes on new construction. Let’s look for alternatives. One might look at sewer and water infrastructure, currently financed by 30 to 40 per cent of the development charges on new homes. The real cost, in fact, subsidizes existing homeowners. Raise sewer and water rates on all housing to properly reflect the cost, which in turn will lead to greater conservation and more affordable new housing.

STEP FIVE

Replace the OMB

Mr. Premier, the new system introduced in the dying days of the Wynne government eliminated the OMB and replaced it with a Local Planning Appeal Tribunal (LPAT), where “not in it in my backyard” reigns supreme. This will further delay the approval process. Create a Provincial Dispute Resolution Panel with the oversight to look at the “bigger picture,” the provincial vision for housing density and affordability.

Mr. Premier, re-introduce the office of the Development Ombudsman so that disputes or delays are resolved or arbitrated before reaching the OMB or its replacement body.

STEP SIX

Modify the Planning Act

Re-introduce the ability of a developer to bring forward a plan from outside an urban boundary. Let the developer front the cost of services. The municipality can still say no. This provision was removed from the planning act in 2004, further constricting supply.

STEP SEVEN

The Hidden Supply – Employment Lands

Currently, Mr. Premier, employment lands are untouchable. They cannot be considered for residential use yet the very nature and scope of industrial commercial lands has changed dramatically in the last 15 years.

Introduction of Robotics and AI have modified the design and formation of today’s employment spaces. Malone Givens Parsons points out we have used only 34 per cent of available employment lands in the GTA. Conversely, we have used or allocated over 57 per cent of available residential lands. Integrating mixed-use development into employment lands would open up supply dramatically from the current rigid lines drawn on our municipal maps.

Just take a walk around existing older employment designated lands today and the potential supply jumps right out. An instant supply solution is available by potentially converting employment land to mixed-use residential.

Mr. Premier, study the implication and provide the supply solution.

So, there you have it, Mr. Premier, seven steps to improving housing affordability in the GTA.

Mr. Premier, start with theses simple Seven Steps and perhaps another “promise made, promise kept” is possible on the affordable housing file in your first term. Good Luck Mr. Premier!

Andrew Brethour is chairman and CEO of PMA Brethour Realty Group. http://www.pmabrethour.com/

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Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		Nov. 2016	Nov. 2017	%	Nov. 2016	Nov. 2017	%	Nov. 2016	Nov. 2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.		66	55	-17	27	57	111	93	112	20
P.E.I.		16	29	81	11	55	400	27	84	211
N.S.		127	113	-11	230	216	-6	357	329	-8
N.B.		62	83	34	65	107	65	127	190	50
Atlantic		271	280	3	333	435	31	604	715	18
Qc		520	546	5	2,325	3,536	52	2,845	4,082	43
Ont.		2,672	2,303	-14	2,466	6,202	152	5,138	8,505	66
Man.		190	202	6	309	303	-2	499	505	1
Sask.		188	141	-25	81	186	130	269	327	22
Alta.		1,016	1,000	-2	1,027	1,774	73	2,043	2,774	36
Prairies		1,394	1,343	-4	1,417	2,263	60	2,811	3,606	28
B.C.		832	1,005	21	2,826	2,813	0	3,658	3,818	4
Canada (10,000+)		5,689	5,477	-4	9,367	15,249	63	15,056	20,726	38
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		15	57	280	5	112	##	20	169	##
Barrie		44	83	89	12	73	##	56	156	179
Belleville		**	34	##	**	18	##	**	52	##
Brantford		8	8	–	14	2	-86	22	10	-55
Calgary		346	390	13	399	1,114	179	745	1,504	102
Edmonton		436	400	-8	550	526	-4	986	926	-6
Greater Sudbury		12	18	50	2	6	200	14	24	71
Guelph		16	19	19	46	250	443	62	269	334
Halifax		46	51	11	195	171	-12	241	222	-8
Hamilton		91	59	-35	81	366	352	172	425	147
Kelowna		93	88	-5	51	145	184	144	233	62
Kingston		38	11	-71	7	11	57	45	22	-51
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		97	88	-9	125	570	356	222	658	196
Lethbridge		**	34	##	**	6	##	**	40	##
London		141	163	16	84	478	469	225	641	185
Moncton		29	23	-21	16	91	469	45	114	153
Montréal		209	237	13	1,188	1,921	62	1,397	2,158	54
Oshawa		43	111	158	78	188	141	121	299	147
Ottawa-Gatineau		201	242	20	267	787	195	468	1,029	120
	Gatineau	24	48	100	77	33	-57	101	81	-20
	Ottawa	177	194	10	190	754	297	367	948	158
Peterborough		27	16	-41	9	0	-100	36	16	-56
Québec		90	66	-27	409	975	138	499	1,041	109
Regina		68	36	-47	30	102	240	98	138	41
Saguenay		17	19	12	26	41	58	43	60	40
St. Catharines-Niagara		122	110	-10	28	132	371	150	242	61
Saint John		6	25	317	6	2	-67	12	27	125
St. John’s		54	42	-22	24	52	117	78	94	21
Saskatoon		99	79	-20	25	60	140	124	139	12
Sherbrooke		28	22	-21	141	130	-8	169	152	-10
Thunder Bay		12	16	33	2	12	##	14	28	100
Toronto		1,308	886	-32	1,435	3,014	110	2,743	3,900	42
Trois-Rivières		16	13	-19	103	35	-66	119	48	-60
Vancouver		379	497	31	2,272	2,141	-6	2,651	2,638	0
Victoria		69	67	-3	199	156	-22	268	223	-17
Windsor		77	45	-42	63	96	52	140	141	1
Winnipeg		166	153	-8	291	291	–	457	444	-3
Total		4,403	4,208	-4	8,183	14,074	72	12,586	18,282	45
Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC


Preliminary Housing Start Data – Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
		Single-Detached			All Others			Total
		Oct.2017	Nov.2017	%	Oct.2017	Nov.2017	%	Oct.2017	Nov.2017	%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.		517	526	2	511	612	20	1,028	1,138	11
P.E.I.		480	284	-41	252	660	162	732	944	29
N.S.		1,226	1,047	-15	1,180	2,420	105	2,406	3,467	44
N.B.		813	789	-3	2,154	1,266	-41	2,967	2,055	-31
Qc		6,191	6,440	4	43,848	38,311	-13	50,039	44,751	-11
Ont.		21,190	24,470	15	36,626	71,271	95	57,816	95,741	66
Man.		2,384	2,414	1	1,968	3,636	85	4,352	6,050	39
Sask.		1,825	1,570	-14	3,372	2,232	-34	5,197	3,802	-27
Alta.		11,960	11,078	-7	15,416	21,100	37	27,376	32,178	18
B.C.		9,604	11,778	23	44,341	33,508	-24	53,945	45,286	-16
Canada (10,000+)		56,190	60,396	7	149,668	175,016	17	205,858	235,412	14
Canada (All Areas)		69,161	73,247	6	153,536	178,937	17	222,695	252,184	13
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission		260	688	165	1,140	1,344	18	1,400	2,032	45
Barrie		836	1,048	25	600	876	46	1,436	1,924	34
Belleville		391	489	25	276	216	-22	667	705	6
Brantford		151	142	-6	0	24	##	151	166	10
Calgary		4,465	4,178	-6	6,816	13,368	96	11,281	17,546	56
Edmonton		4,396	4,351	-1	4,764	6,312	32	9,160	10,663	16
Greater Sudbury		102	160	57	48	72	50	150	232	55
Guelph		254	263	4	288	3,000	##	542	3,263	##
Halifax		850	628	-26	840	2,052	144	1,690	2,680	59
Hamilton		708	752	6	1,080	4,392	307	1,788	5,144	188
Kelowna		748	839	12	1,212	1,740	44	1,960	2,579	32
Kingston		221	97	-56	168	132	-21	389	229	-41
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo		865	968	12	1,236	6,840	453	2,101	7,808	272
Lethbridge		452	462	2	948	72	-92	1,400	534	-62
London		1,632	1,858	14	504	5,736	##	2,136	7,594	256
Moncton		340	190	-44	1,680	1,092	-35	2,020	1,282	-37
Montréal		2,653	2,741	3	38,178	23,021	-40	40,831	25,762	-37
Oshawa		491	1,485	202	3,096	2,256	-27	3,587	3,741	4
Ottawa-Gatineau		3,004	2,669	-11	3,816	9,444	147	6,820	12,113	78
	Gatineau	423	471	11	504	396	-21	927	867	-6
	Ottawa	2,581	2,198	-15	3,312	9,048	173	5,893	11,246	91
Peterborough		249	191	-23	48	0	-100	297	191	-36
Québec		769	737	-4	3,276	11,700	257	4,045	12,437	207
Regina		521	399	-23	1,212	1,224	1	1,733	1,623	-6
Saguenay		274	246	-10	324	492	52	598	738	23
St. Catharines-Niagara		870	1,101	27	2,376	1,584	-33	3,246	2,685	-17
Saint John		189	279	48	48	24	-50	237	303	28
St. John’s		368	391	6	504	624	24	872	1,015	16
Saskatoon		1,094	887	-19	1,884	720	-62	2,978	1,607	-46
Sherbrooke		202	247	22	1,092	1,560	43	1,294	1,807	40
Thunder Bay		114	149	31	360	144	-60	474	293	-38
Toronto		6,975	9,040	30	21,048	36,168	72	28,023	45,208	61
Trois-Rivières		188	176	-6	348	420	21	536	596	11
Vancouver		4,376	6,171	41	30,408	25,692	-16	34,784	31,863	-8
Victoria		881	795	-10	8,460	1,872	-78	9,341	2,667	-71
Windsor		615	574	-7	648	1,152	78	1,263	1,726	37
Winnipeg		1,783	1,842	3	1,524	3,492	129	3,307	5,334	61
Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

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